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I used to own this hat for around 2 weeks and just sold it for 1 bud.
I had it at 1 bud + Bill's for about 9 days, I had one person interested but he retracted almost instantly. I then had to eventually lower it down to 1 bud as it became more and more difficult to sell.
The hat is around mid tier for Sniper but the effect brings it down a little, which can make it a tough sell, here are some trades off outpost that I've analysed:
Proof 1: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8034276[/url]
Highest offer this one has is 1 bud.
Proof 2: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8250526[/url]
This trade has only been up for about 3 days but its highest offer is a BMOC + 1 key.
Proof 3: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5459929[/url]
This trade has been up for 3 months and the highest pure offer it has is 31 keys as well as having a few bud pure offers.
Proof 4: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7371487[/url]
This one has the highest offer so far, at 1 bud + black bill's, but was retracted shortly after, this link also has a 1 bud offer on it.
In conclusion, I've only found two people willing to pay a Bud + Bill's here, but they all seem to get retracted, so I'd say people just aren't willing to give that much for one.
Link 3, how long ago was that 31 key offer? (OP as blocked for me atm)
and link 4, shouldn't drive the price up since it was retracted very quickly.
Also, as you're new here just gonna give some insight (as i said i can't open OP so this might not really be applicable)
the low end should be an offer that is offered with some frequency (yet clearly not a lowball)
and the high end should be the most a hat has sold for/slightly more than unanimously rejected offers.
I'm not sure what you mean by you being blocked and I accept your advice, most people are getting 1 bud offers.
Link 3: the 31 keys offer was made a month ago.
Link 4: I thought it was worth noting anyway, that link also has a 1 bud offer in it which would've been worth noting (just added it).
To me, a hat's price should be decided on how much someone is willing to pay for it, not just how much someone wants to sell it for, I've done my research and its just not getting any legit offers for anything over 30 keys.
But yes like you said, I'm new at price checking, so I apologise if I've done something wrong.
I agree, and u cant entirely ignore a retracted offer but you have to consider why it was retracted.
As for the 31 key offer, it looks like it might b an outlier and if some have sold several times for a bud then i might consider valuing the 31 key offer a little less. (since it is over a month old, and potentially close to 2)
but do take what i said with a grain of salt as ive only looked at the proof u provided and no further.