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How the heck did it get this way? Anyways, proof below.
All hits on Outpost search:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6691491 (C/O 15 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8263834 (C/O 13 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8039646 (C/O 13 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8313783 (C/O 12 keys, wants 14-16 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6671612 (Various offers, wanting 2 black bills, same guy as Link 1)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8207192 (No offers yet)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8264127 (Same guy as above link, different trade, no offers)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8343813 (No B/O or C/O yet)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8358716 (No offers yet)
There it is, everyone that is being sold on Outpost. This is my first unusual suggestion so hopefully it goes well. If you downvote, let me know why. :)
Link 1: The offer of 15 keys is a month old and from before when the current suggested price was made. In all of this time it hasn't actually happened. Has this hat actually hit 15 keys recently? Did you check the histories of those ones and see what they have actually sold for?
In terms of link 1, I could not find the Dread Knot in the previous owners Outpost history, meaning it must have been traded on a trade server or another site. The previous owner, Goomba, actually offered 14 keys 2 months ago for it.
Therefore, any evidence of what Link 1's previous owner sold it for would be irrelevant since that would be a 2+ month old trade.
Here we go, the previous owner of Link 6's Dread Knot had a B/O of 15 keys.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8149061