Proof:

#1:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8088624

- Trade posted 1 week ago

- Sold 1:1 for Bubbling Samur-Eye (Look at Peanut Butter Jelly Time’s comment)

- Price of Samur-Eye is currently 1.2-1.5 buds as set by Jester one month ago. http://backpack.tf/vote/id/50dc6871ba2536c3710000fb

#2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7855549

- Trade posted 3 weeks ago

- Sold for 6 keys, 20 refined, and a lot of festives (Look at Baloo ’s comment)

- Screenshot from Baloo’s trade history provided by Baloo: http://i.imgur.com/piLAe.png

#3 (In a set)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6816192

- Trade posted 1 month ago

- Sold for at least a bud, 2 keys, and a refined. Most likely sold for closer to buyout, but unable to know for sure. (Look at Teep’s comment)

Conclusion: Link 1 shows an unusual overpay. Since the unusual is up-to-date as far as unusual prices go I’d say the pure value would be around 1.1-1.2 buds pure. Link 2 shows a purchase in items amounting to a bud or more depending on how much resale you want to factor in. Link 3 is hard to say what the set actually sold for, but the set items in the trade amount to about 2 keys at the most which would mean that at least a bud if not more was paid for the unusual itself.

Credits go to Baloo http://steamcommunity.com/groups/meetthestats/discussions/1/864958451642882045/