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Mostly based off of my own trade:
Stormy Anger = 3.7 (It was Duped - No Gift Text, instant reject)
Head Case = 4 (Rejected Three Times)
2 Pure + Ghosts Hard Top + NnB Marauder = 2 + 2.1 + .8 = 4.9 (He bought the same hat already)
Burning Flames Counter + Planets Noble = 2.6 + 1.8 = 4.4 (Didn't like the Counter)
Orbiting Fire Honcho + Bubbling Tyrannus = 1.9 + 2 = 3.9 (Easy to sell though)
NnB Killer Exclusive = 3.7 (Rejected, also saw it in most of the Stormy Storm BB trades... also rejected or was asked to add)
NnB Killer Exclusive + Planets Texas + lvl 42 Vintage Weapon Medic Set (Tentative) = 3.7 + 1.4 + ? = 5.1 + ?
Cauldron Bubbles Milkman = 4.7 (Rejected sine he was a douche)
Blizzard Bubble Pipe + SF Flame + SF Axe = 3.3 + 17.5 keys + 6 keys = Around 4.2?
Bubble Noble + Pruple Energy Nano + SF Axe + S Holiday Punch= (WAS) 1.8 + 2.4 + 6 keys + 2 keys = 4.4-ish?
Hearts Tree = 4 (Duped Thrice - No Text)
NnB Towering + Bubbles Company + 2 White Bills + 3 Keys = 1.8 + 2.1 + 20 keys + 3 keys = 5-ish
5 Buds = ... 5 :| Wasn't my trade
TS Max (lvl 34) + Steaming Luchadore + ~18 keys = 2 + 1.7 + ~18 keys = 4.2-ish
4 Buds = Wasn't my trade, was rejected.
Purple Energy Hotrod + 13th hour Detective Noir = 2.7 + 2.5 = 5.2 (Guy who had the Vivid Plasma Tossle)
Orb Fire Veil and NnB HWNN = 3.1 + 1 = 4.1
Vivid Plasma Tossle = 4.4 (Was another guy's B/O)
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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7627298 = Vivid Plasma Tossle
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8332147 = New-ish trade
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7924896 = My old one, ended yesterday.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8056592 = Ended 5 days ago, has a ton of NICE offers, most not listed here.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/3099710 = Been on-going for more than 3 months.
So you're basing this on the 4.9 offer. But you forget to take unusual overpay into consideration what is usually about 90% --> 4.9 = ~4.4 pure.
And 4.4 is in the actual range.
EDIT: Oh wait, where is the 5 bud offer? If it's in unusuals too, then it would be in the current range.