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Well there seems to be a very large number of people trying to sell for 5 ref+, but most sales that I have seen tend to be in the 3.66-4 ref range.
3.33 ref - sold
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8377691[/url]
1 key - offer to sell
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8288315][/url]
4 ref - sold
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8375998[/url]
4 ref - offers to sell
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7992069[/url]
4.33 - unsold
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8419215[/url]
4.44 - unsold
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8417459[/url]
4.33 is only 3 hours old and the 4.44 one is sold. 4.33-5 seems like a better price range. Maybe 4.33-4.66.
On outpost, everyone sells them for 5.33 ref, I bought one for 5, and have seen over 20 closed trades for around this price range
People are listing them for 5.33 ref, but it doesn't seem like they're being sold for that much. I found 4 unsold ducks for 5 ref on the first 2 pages:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8185757
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8309645
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8383940
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8419345
When it's this easy to find one at that price, you know there are people out there willing to sell for less.
I bought mine today for 4 ref, by the way.