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I'll start out by stating that I obviously have very little interest in lowering the price on these since I have 4 of them in my BP right now.
That being said, the price is wrong. I've had a trade up buying these for 12 keys and then 11 keys and people keep selling them to me. A guy just sold me 2 more for 11 keys which is why I have 4 now. I have been unable to sell any for even 15 keys, the only one I've bought and gotten rid of I traded for a G. Mercs Pride Scarf. I just lowered my sell price to 14 keys so I'll see how that goes.
Obviously if an item is being sold for 11 keys and doesn't sell well for 15 keys, 14-16 keys is a stupid range for it.
My buy trade, now buying for 10 keys: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8217881
My sell trade: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8417545
If you think I'm wrong please buy some for 14 keys from me!
you're still going to need more than 1 trade.
It's a super limited item, most of the people on outpost are looking for a bud and get no offers ever. Hard to show more evidence. Also I've made 6 trades of them in the past week, just because it's all on 2 posts is irrelevant imo.
You need more proof, more links
The proof is very much wanted
http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/75648068 there's the people buying AAA badges. Highest buy price is 12 keys and that guy has a total of 3 keys in his BP, everyone else buys for 10 keys or are making terrible item offers.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8329436
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7323382 (offer of 15 paypal + sf ax=~16 keys, accepted but retracted)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7864643 offers of 16 -17 on all three of these, but they're all from the same person. They are now attempting to sell it for 19 here. (lol)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7839019 recent pure offers are 13, 14, and 15 keys.
All others have no notable pure COs, prolly because they have pipe dream buyouts. Proof is limited, but it seems that demand for this has fallen: any offers above proposed range were clearly desperate.