The supply of this part is continuously increasing (available from Crate #55), and the demand is very low. The price will continue to fall, but for now I feel this is a prudent range. Quite a lot of proof below (unlike the prior rejected suggestions).

Based on the proof, the current price is simply too high now; many sales at 1.66 ref, and failed sellers from 2 ref to 2.66 ref. I thought about suggesting 1.66-2 ref instead, but given that most 1.66 ref buyers are "quick-buyers" looking to profit, and there are some rare instances of 2.66 and 2.33 ref sales, I hesitated to push the range down that low right away. At least this incremental change is more accurate.

All trades linked below are from TF2Outpost and have been active for at least 24 hours.

Unsuccessful Sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8337874 - Trying for 3 days to sell at 2.33, garnered interest but no sale

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8404585 - Trying for a day to sell at 2.66 with 1-hour autobump, no interest

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8264300 - Trying to sell for a week, has been at 2.33 since 5 days ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8331509 - Looking for offers for 3 days, no interest

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8400820 - Trying to sell for a day for 2 ref with 1-hour autobump, little interest but no apparent sales

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8374201 - Trying to sell for a day for 2.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8216147 - 1-hour autobump, active for a week, looking for offers, only got (and rejected) a single 2 ref offer

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8383483 - Looking for offers with 2-hour autobump for a day, no interest

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8395347 - Looking for offers for a day, no interest

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8391107 - Trying to sell for 2.66 for a day now

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8140435 - Trying to sell for 2.66 for a week now with 2-hour autobump

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8245996 - Looking for offers for a week with only one offer (2 ref, from "Straight Man"), seller rejected and offerer bought one for 2 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5493970 - Mass seller active for 3 months with changing prices (also shown below as a mass buyer) managing to sell one part for 2.66 ref (23 in stock, bought for 1.66 ref each presumably)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8016623 - Active for 2 weeks looking for offers, rejected a 2 ref offer ("HoStorm") and a ~2.66 ref offer ("FrozenCherry")

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8330388 - Active for 3 days with 2-hour autobump looking for items worth 2.66-3 ref, rejected offers of 1.66 ref and 2 ref in pure metal ("Sunshine")

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8306904 - 1:1 for Critical Kills, active for 5 days with 1.5-hour autobump, currently valued the same on bp.tf, zero interest

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8310549 - Active for 4 days with 1-hour autobump, trying to sell for 2.66 ref, zero interest

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8310549 - Active for a day with 2-hour autobump, looking for "bp.tf average prices" (in this case around 2.49 ref), no interest

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8043961 - Active for 2 weeks with 1-hour autobump, looking for 2.66 ref, zero interest

Successful Sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8391107 - Trying to sell for 2 craft hats (2.66) for 4 days with 1-hour autobump, sold 2.

Successful Buyers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8219680 - Mass buyer active for at least a week with 2-hour autobump, bought many of these parts for 1.66 each

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7126720 - Another mass buyer active for at least a month with 2-hour autobump, bought many of these parts for 1.66 each