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SOLD/WILLING BUYERS:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8222339 2 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8207946 2 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8406020 a Cremator's Conscience
UNSOLD:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8244162 Backpack.tf prices (1 week)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8387048 2.33 (2 days, barely bumped)
OFFERS:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8392886 2 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8198917 2 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7937072 2 ref (Thoguht it was silver apparently, maybe a brain fart on his part who knows)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8131035 2 ref, the OP Instantly added even though B/o was 2.66. Later in the comments he's willing to go to 1.66.
STILL NEW:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8409079 2.33 for wrench + S. Razorback + S. Eyelander, valueing it at 1.33-1.66
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8426028 2.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8399978 Backpack.tf prices
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8410849 2.11
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8427647 1.66
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8397709 Rust Sniper
People willing to sell even lower than 1.66 in some situations, but 2 ref is where most successful sales are at.
i think your proof sounds logical but there is after only 2 pages of trades on outpost and i somehow suspect that the people selling at 2 ref and below actually got it for dirt cheap from tf2wh. even if we lower the price now eventually it will go back up again as it becomes rarer and people are forced to buy from ridiculous resellers. also i generally think that if there are so few active trades on OP it means that the backpack.tf pricing is spot on.