First link all are unsold for 5 days, second link has offers of 4.33, third link is selling for 4.33, and the last link is a fake offer as the guy does not even have 5 ref. Even if he did have 5 ref its one trade and most people sell lower than that. One person does not represent the whole market. Downvoted, but it does need a bump up.

EDIT: Looking into it myself, my findings:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8558991 Offer of 1 key + 1 ref (4.66)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8373997 Offer of 4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8394785 Offer of 4 ref, willing buyer at 6?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8387259 2 willing buyers at 6? What is this.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8467687 Willing buyers at 7 ref/2 keys?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8575797 SOLD for 4.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8594152 Offer of 4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8597407 Sold for a key + name tag

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4857284 Offer of 4.33 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/3377814 Offer of 4.33 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8598398 Selling for 4.66

DISREGARD WHAT I SAID BEFORE, THIS PRICE SEEMS GOOD.

at first i thought this was kinda a HUGE increase but when i look at the proof in the pudding, it makes sense. upvoted