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You can't get this for 4 ref anymore. Only a few selling trades as proof. Proof in comments:
Selling for 5 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8642508
Sold out at 5 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4850048
Sold out at 5.55 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/3522677
Being offered 1 key 1 ref (4.66 ref):
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8545347
Buying for 4 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8044838 (no luck)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4922646 (being offered 4.33 ref instead)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8351136 (no luck)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8212069 (no luck)
Buying for 4.33 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8339435 (2 adds)
There was one guy who was selling this at classifieds for 4 ref just before I posted this. I bought it cuz it was cheap :D Other than that, you can't get it in Outpost. Lowest I've seen so far is 4.33 ref.
The one that I just bought has been sold for 5 ref after just an hour (this is to support current high end):
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8674468
http://i.imgur.com/Dd8SCED.png
Even though I feel you should have more proof. It seems like these are going up.
You have to understand that there is no more "selling" proof lol. This is all that's in Outpost at the moment.
Didn't realize that but there is also bazaar.tf. I mean paint in general seems to be going up, but I just hate how price suggestions go up without at least 15 solid links of proof.
http://bazaar.tf/trade/132857 - Selling for 5 ref
http://bazaar.tf/trade/91836 - 1 month ago link (hasn't beem bumped since then) with lowballers.
That's all they got too, so yeah.
Whatever I'm just going to upvote this mostly because there Isn't many people selling them and the ones that are selling you have shown some decent proof. :)