Unsold above 3 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8516791 [1 week @ 3.33 ref]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8596931 [5 days @ 3.22 ref]

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8702285 [1 day @ 3.33 ref]

Willing 3 ref sellers

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/1008/6/0 (1 in Classifieds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8683055

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8680193

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8639446

A willing 2.66 seller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8704424

This shows that these are (relatively) common enough at 3 ref. I only have 4 pages of sellers to work with, so I looked to buyers for some inspiration.

Unsuccessful buyer links

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8622472 (2.22 @ 4 days) (Also, another willing 3 ref seller)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8622862 (2.11 ref @ 4 days)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8699120 (2.11 @ 1 day)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8705651 (2 ref @ 1 day)

And finally:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8648231 (One willing 3 ref seller and another willing 2.88 ref seller)

Conclusion: Anything above 3 ref doesn't seem likely, so that eliminates the 3.33 high end. Meanwhile, sellers aren't willing to let them go for 2 ref or so, so that eliminates the 2 ref low end as well. That, and I don't see many sales going on that low right now. My suggestion? 2.66-3 ref to tighten the range to something more accurate.

If any sellers could provide their insight on this, too, I'd appreciate it. I personally don't feel comfortable with this few links.