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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8817820 Best offer 1 bud and 18 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8274489 Best offer bud and 15 keys, some 1.8 bud unusuals
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7281850 only offer in 2 months was 2 buds and 10 keys and was retracted
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8736572 1 bud and 25 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6059659 2 buds (3 month old offer) lots more unusuals worth 1.6 or so
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8611950 1 bud 15 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8730284 32 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8661920 around 1 bud and 8 keys mixed
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8349527 bud and 10 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8647198 bud and 15 keys
VERY hard hat to sell, and there's a million of them on the market. The average best offer is around 1.5 buds, with a rare offer being 1.9 buds, and many, many, many 2 bud buyouts.
Any evidence of sales?
No, but that's extremely hard to do, to find people that sold it, as those trades are closed. But with the highest offers being bud and 10 keys to bud and 18 keys, this is a good price. With around 10 on the market and several months having gone by, a very accurate range can be seen.