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Selling for 5.66 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8743422 (2 adds)
Selling for 6 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8836303 (2 retracted willing buyers)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8824429
Sold for 6 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8506052 (latest offer being 1 week ago)
Selling for 2 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8130332 (seller inactive, trade has been up for 1 month, but have 1 add just a day ago)
Conclusion, lots of ppl selling this paint at 2 keys but most are unsuccessful. Only one active trade selling for 5.66 ref. The rest are selling for 6 ref and above. 6 ref is possible, receiving 2 retracted offers and in one trade, 2 after eights were sold at that price. The sole 5.33 ref trade in classifieds doesn't have it in his bp anymore. No one selling for 5.66 and below.
My price suggestion: 5.66-6 ref
it says selling for 1 key, I think you mean 2
whoops, make a mistake there. Thank you for pointing that out.
can't forget the quicksell-buyers I've based my suggestions on before:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4922646 6ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8455626 5.66ref
Thank you for posting additional proof :D The trader in the first link is buying them for 6 ref and reselling them for 6.66 ref. But his trade is still new, so I didn't include that in. But from what I see, this paint will keep on rising.