These have gone up (for whatever reason) and 1 key is no longer in the range. Behold:

NO SUCCESS BUYERS

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8766042 (4 ref, 4 days)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8470580 (1 key, 2 weeks)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8660995 (1 key + .11ref, 1 week)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8249190 (1 key, 2 weeks+)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8660281 (1 key, 1 week)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8652591 (1 key, 1 week)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8734040 (1 key, 6 days)

SELLERS

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8792312 (no success @ 6ref)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8570821 (offers of 1.5 - 2 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8738080 (1 buyer for 1.5 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8700053 (turned down 1.3 keys offer)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5280916 (recent 7 ref offer)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7597485 (multiple 7 ref offers)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8862437 (1 buyer for 1.5 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8833815 (few offers of 1.5 keys)

Lots of other sellers having no luck at 2 keys, so I'm not putting that in the range.

Classifieds has the lowest @ 6.66 ref: http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/festive%20flame

Just for completeness: "Steam market average (24 hours): 2.82 USD (6 sold)" or around 1.23 keys