http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8633979

B/O of 5, offer of a Smoking Bomber (2.8-3.4 buds)

As seen here http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8667476 traded for the Sultan (3.9-4.9 buds) after adding an Orb. Fire Demo Fro (1-1.3 buds) making this a ~3 Buds worth

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8572344

Beams Mirror offer (2.5-3.1 buds) + sweets

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8274986

Planets Merry (1.3-1.5 buds) and Smoking Hermes (1.2-1.4 buds) + sweets, didn't take

Stormy Bonk Boy (3.4-3.9 buds)

3 Buds

Burning Mongol (2-2.6 buds) + 1 bud + 3 keys

Ultimately traded for something involving http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8512863

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8712099

Burning Mirror (3.3-4.1 buds) if he'd add

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8723246

"I'd do a smoking lucha + a planets towering pillar on your sack"

1.7-2.1 buds + 2-2.4 buds

The only trade I could actually gather proof of was the Unusual trade making ~3 Buds, and considering other offers I'd say this is a good starter range.