6 month old price. 14 in the wild, about half for sale on OP. Not many offers on these, but here's what i could find:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8816259

b/o: 2.3

Offers:

-Stormy Merry (~1.8)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8853494

-Blizz Mountain Cap. (1.4ish)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8594114

b/o: 2.5

-No offers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8851727

-TF marauder (~1.6)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8873261

b/o: 2 buds(!)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8259874 (3 weeks ago)

-SOLD for Hearts Larkin plus Peace sign Hound Dog (~2.9)

So i'm bumping the price down to be 2 buds(ish). The 2, 2.3 and 2.5 b/os indicate the hat is trending down, but one did just sell for 2.5+. Based on the offers and b/os this range seems fair to buyers and sellers imo.