Sellers:

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8176429[/url] 2.66 refined || open for 1 month (???)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8914660[/url] 3 refined || open for 30 minutes

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8908886[/url] 3 refined (has 3) || open for 6 hours

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8869233[/url] 3 refined || open for 2 days

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8869867[/url] 3 refined || open for 2 days

Sold:

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8875582[/url] 3 refined (my trade) || Sold in a day.

Conclusion:

It is hard to say whether the person selling for 2.66 refined has just not been bumping or not, but as of right now I am considering it an outlier. None of the other 3 refined sellers had auto-bump and are all fairly new. Since I was able to sell mine for 3 refined in a day on auto-bump, I am going to conservatively drop the price to 3 refined flat.