Suggestion: Mann Co. Supply Crate Key at 3.88–4 ref

And of course we all know about those lowballers who offer like 1.66 ref for a 2-2.33 ref item. Well, in the key-case you have them as well, only now they are buying for 3.77 ref, because they know it's an easy sale at 4 ref.

Keys are o-so-easy to sell at 3.77, 3.88 and sometimes even at 4 ref. Whenever I add a seller who sells for 3.77/3.88, the answer is always: "Sold out, sorry."

I can make an entire list of sales for 4 ref here, but I think my point has been made.

Btw I won't be on for like 8 hours, so amuse me with lots of comments. Keep the "you piece of shit keys were 2.55 all your fault blabla..."-comments to yourself please (god, i know i'm gonna get a lot now by trollers)

sellers????

its a key suggestion, YOU NEED A TON OF PROOF :D

edit: 4th trade just changed his price a couple hours ago, so now he's buying 3.88. must be desperate :P

The fact that there are so many buyers @3.88 indicates there are plenty of successful sellers at 4.

I actually just dont want keys at 4 ref :P but still people will downvote if they only see buyers on keys, you need very successful sellers at 4 ref. You might want to show 3.88 as well, and show that 3.77 is not possible to buy at. I have seen many buyers at 3.77, so I doubt all of them are having very little success

TF2 Finanace is at 3.84 atm, so its not at 3.88 yet. It fits the old range much better

http://tf2finance.com/keys/

I saw the PSA, so edit: how is 3.88 hard? as you can see they're about 10 3.88 buyers that he found. If you're buying at the highest price, how is it hard?

o, 3.77 is pretty much impossible

Haven't been able to buy at under 3.88 for days now (and even 3.88 is a bit on the hard side)

ive been buying at 3.88 for the past couple of days and have gotten about about 4~ a day on average vs. the 20~ a day that i sell at 4 ref.

Also, just because he can find 10 buyers paying 3.88 doesn't mean they're actually successful at buying.

well if they're not successful, why is it proof?

So, if i found a bunch of links of buyers offering 2.66 would that support a range involving 2.66? No.

The fact that there are so many people offering 3.88 shows that there is no reason to sell for less, and therefore a good low-range.

you just contradicted yourself.....

and the buyers would have to be SUCCESSFUL if you wanted to put that range. and so many people is 10? I saw about 50 at 3.77 by just looking at the first couple pages of an outpost search.

I dont believe that you can be that successful at 4 ref. when the range was 3.66-3.77, I got about 6 adds at 3.77 a day... but there is no way this suggestion passes because of what cleverpun said down below.

O, i agree this suggestion is a bit early...

And i didn't contradict myself.... My point was that just because someone is offering something doesn't mean that they'll be successful. 3.88 is a good low end since 3.88 is still possible, just quite rare.

50 buyers @3.77 almost all completely unsuccessful (trust me i've tried), and there are plenty of people buying at 3.88 without much success...and i can take screen shots of my trade history showing a bunch of sales at 4 ref....

First link was obviously desperate, stopped buying after 48 minutes.

You'll need way more than 1 link to prove a high range for keys.

yeah and now those lowballers are gonna resell them for even higher than 4 ref. And the price will increase even more.

Mother of god... Another key price suggestion?!

Last one was accepted a day ago, damnit.

A key price a day keeps the F2p's away

i finally embrace backpack.tf as keysuggestion.tf

This comment doesn't seem to have a purpose.

im tired of this. fuck that.

Last one got denied just today.

Probably going to be swarmed with downvotes.

Im going to be doing some research. (Specifically trade servers)

http://i2.minus.com/iPLirNSiWk1NA.png

PUBLIC-SERVICE-ANNOUNCEMENT

STOP THE SPAM

It makes the mods jobs more difficult, and it makes it harder to sift through comments...

So don't do it...

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/128-psastop-the-spam/

Back on Topic,

Keys sell almost instantly at 4 ref, and are somewhat-difficult to buy @ 3.88, so this definitely seems better but blarghh OP is weird.

Also, tf2finance.com is at 3.84, which would makes the current range pretty accurate.

This.

I sell keys instantly at 4, have only gotten TWO for 3.88 after two days. Sold about ~30 at 4 ref.

Finance tells a different story though, and that is what mainly matters.

This isn't ready to happen yet. Downvote from me.

8 outpost links as base for another key price change, 1 day after the last one was approved. It's now officially a joke.

The whole thing was a joke when the prices started rising after Halloween.

Imo too low proof for this kind of suggestion , neutral for now

Just to get it out of the way, here's what you can expect:

"Doing it to increase your BP value"

"backpack.tf is controlling the key prices"

"Keys will crash"

"Stop raising key prices"

"Remember when keys were 2.66 ref?"

"Downvote, I still get them for 3.33 on trade servers"

"Applying real-world economics to a video game is just stupid"

"Next will be 2 keys for 1 key"

"If this passes, key traders will increase their prices by one scrap"

"Oh boy, another key suggestion, get your popcorn"

"You can't use Outpost as valid proof because of highballers"

"Stop inflating the key prices"

"The demand of keys is actually going down/The supply of keys is actually going up, prices should be going down"

"I stopped trading for keys after it became 3 ref"

"This site reflects the current price, we have to update if traders are buying/selling for more"

"If you don't like it, stop trading"

"This is the admins' faults"

"Why can't keys be at a set price?"

"tf2finance isn't valid proof"

"Downvote, not enough links"

"Keys ruin this game"

"backpack.tf ruined the tf2 economy"

*string of nonsense/flamewars*

Those were all the common comments I could find. Did I miss anything?

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/50e8b403ba25360e44000002

Yeah, I know, but that list needs to be updated.

if everyone stop buying keys at 3ref that should reflect for more keys available for me to purchase but since its getting harder for me to buy the keys i guess keys are actually decreasing! well what you think!

not even a whole day until another suggestion. i love what op has don-achieved.

ok enough is enough. seriously... screw you guys, don't you see this is all going to go crashing down? then everyone's money, whether keys or metal, isn't going to be worth anything.

by the way, do you even know what trolling is? if i tell you my opinion and i honestly believe it, support it and it makes sense, thats not trolling.

If you raise the top limit to 4 ref, then people will sell at 4.11 ref. If you don't keep raising the top limit then people will not keep selling higher and higher and the price of keys won't go up as fast. Unless of course you own 400 keys and want the price to go up just to profit; in that case you suck. I'm glad that I quit buying keys months ago. It has now become survival of the richest.

You do realize the market isn't controlled by backpack.tf?

People are going to raise their prices regardless of what bp.tf says.....

But backpack.tf just gives people a reason to speed up this process since it's supposed to be the most reputable price checking site.

You underestimate the power and value of this site.

Besides, if backpack doesnt have this effect, why must we update the price constantly then? Surely the economy can do just fine for a few days without us telling everyone what to value their keys at.

What is the point of all this discussion if there is no effect? The whole reason people believe there ought to be a democratic form of price setting is because everyone knows how powerful the entire spreadsheet concept is. How could spreadsheet.blogspot have had a scandal about market manipulation without them having massive influence on the market? Thats the whole reason people refer to here in the first place.

Think it through.

Actually, we don't update the price everyday. The last three accepted all had a four day gap between them. Backpack can only react to change. Personally, I think this suggestion's wrong. Too early. But in a few days, it may well be right.

Four day gap with no accepted and 4 closed each day suggestions.

People can suggest whenever they want, doesn't mean they'll pass.

But its indicative of a culture constantly attempting to change the price. You ever heard of the concept of push polling? You punt an idea around it will get legs if you expose people to it over and over again. The idea is keys will go up, period. People accept it if its always being discussed as inevitability. If not today, then it'll be tomorrow.

Its hardly an immaculate system to just vote on a whim everyday. Its harmless with low interest items, but with contentious stuff its different.

Some faggets already trying to sell at 4.33-4.66 long time.

oh man

did spreadsheet ACTUALLY just become cheaper?

take me out the oven because i am so done

Fuck this shit! Leave the damn key prices alone for half a second!!

this is total bull. bought 6 keys @3.66 yesterday. then people highball and ask for 4 ref, which changes the value to 4 ref. then people start highballing @ 4.33 ref, and soon the price will rise to 4.33, then it will keep going up and up

It's a really surprise, you only have 1 Key in your backpack and are vote for up the price...

I have 5 and made the last suggestion.

This may surprise you, but not all of us are out for our own gain. I genuinely enjoy helping this site.

Would people stop putting key suggestions already? D:

Leave it alone for a while...

Here's how it works. In general people perceive key prices as if they're out of control. This sets the tone.

Backpack suggestion hits, arguments, voting, whatever. Price goes up. From all this price voting panic ensues, people buy up the cheapest keys, the people holding keys realize they control the market, demand is up because everyone thinks prices are going up. Holders pump up the prices. Everyone sees everyone else raising prices, so why not get in on it? Any sensibly priced key get snapped up instantly because everyone thinks its going up anyway. People who can't wait to post a new suggestion don't even let the market settle long enough for supply at a certain price to stabilize, suggest another price hike, everyone KNOWS it'll pass because thats the culture, so they start buying up the next lowest price expecting 4 to be the new normal tomorrow.

The cycle continues.

I'd be VERY interested to see how things went if we didn't hike the price every day now. Changing prices so often this site goes from reflecting the price to setting it. People see the price go up every day they believe it, and by reacting so rapidly to any price fluctuation you create your own inflation by controlling the perception of the culture.

This site shouldn't be allowed to vote on key prices more than once a week. Prices need time to stabilize. People would believe the price if it happened without a Backpack.tf price hike, but if you dont even wait 24 hours... I agree with them. People here are just manipulating the economy at this point, whether they know it or not.

While eating cereal at my table this morning, I stumbled upon an interesting thought.

Buyers only buy high because they expect key prices to rise. If we give it a rest for a few weeks, I think most key buyers would go back down, since it would become too easy to buy for their prices. I see a lot of "Keys are going up so fast I should get as many as I can" mindsets, and I think maybe we should slow down and see if things even out without backpack.tf influencing them.

Just a thought.

Ah, yes, and I completely agree with what P*Funk [ESG] said.

We all saw it coming

This comment is exactly what I'm talking about. People expect the prices to go up, so they comply with it.

Everyone agrees that the price is whatever people are willing to pay, but what makes people willing to pay what they are? The answer to that question is what many of us believe is the reason this price voting must stop, at least every single friggin' day.

NO STOP RAISING THE PRICE

[url]http://tf2finance.com/keys/[/url]

Obligatory TF2 Finance link says otherwise, for the moment.

I'm just gonna leave this here

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8979612

There are just so many comments on key suggestions that I kind of just skim through the page and read the comments with the most likes and dislikes. I realize this probably isn't useful to everyone, but since I kind of doubt people will read this comment, I'm just going to state my own thoughts.

I read it. :)

I naturally gravitated towards the immaculate punctuation and correct capitalization.

Last time I had commented on Key prices, I proposed a rate of inflation on the price of Keys:

Late Summer of last year I noticed the price to be 2.77 Ref a key ( A Two scrap increase since June when it was 2.55). From August of 2012 to February 2013 (6 months), the price has risen to 3.77. In six months, the price would have officially increase by 2 Ref every year (Ratio of 2:1).

In this particular argument, the branch failed but the overall 'trunk' succeeded and a week later there's a 1 scrap increase. If one scrap = 1 week then in 5 months (assuming 22 weeks) when I first observed the 2 scrap increase of August 2012, then it's a 21 scrap gain or 2.33 Ref increase. Doubling that and the Key price would have increase by 4.33 in 10 months. I predicted a 2 Ref a Year and that's over 200% of what I anticipated.

The number one rule of pricing is it's worth what people are willing to buy, for quite a few things it's not directly true. This rule does NOT apply to keys at all because there's no freedom to asking below standard. If you look to say the Lumbricus Lid, it's valued 7 but people are willing to pay 4.66 at most.

This is a serious down vote and to anyone whose brain cells have not been consumed by greed, please spread the word that key prices need to go down.

I don't think this suggestion is correct, but of course keys are worth what people are willing to pay. If people are buying at 3.88, then no-one will sell for 3.66, will they?

You prove an excellent point:

People who deal with Keys are like sheep; when one successfully manages to sell above the norm, instantly the other sellers change to match this and claim it's the 'standard' to maximize profit. The ones who don't change would sell it for the 3.66 but, assuming they sold three keys, would be unable to buy those three keys back because everyone's moved to the new price.

To use Papershadow's link, the success of that trade may very well lead to the increase of keys to 4.22

The problem is that you assume people are learning this truth about what people are willing to pay from experiencing the market first hand. For 90% of people this just isn't true. The vast vast majority of people read the pricelist and accept it verbatim, or resign themselves to the fact that others will.

The pricelist reacts to pricing too quickly and as such has far too close a relationship with the price inflation. Price increases of this variety (aggressively updated nightly) do more to influence the market than most people here are willing to admit.

You know the old scientific theory that the very act of observing something changes its nature? The idea basically boils down to the fact that by observing you actually change it or do not see it perfectly as it would normally be. This site basically over-observes the key market and as such does alot to influence it.

The constant harangue of "we must reflect the price" banter is very disingenuous. If people are willing to pay what they're willing to pay then why must this site change its price? Everyone here is arguing because they KNOW that tomorrow the price change will cause people to behave along its lines.

I feel sorry for the admin who have to read the suggestion for keys......it seems that there is a key suggestion every week.

The economy will crash someday. How things are going now:

Price raised to 3.77.

Sellers selling at 3.88.

Buyers have no choice but to buy at that price.

Price raises to 3.88.

This will keep going on, and is causing an inflation bubble.

Please stop.

thats pretty much the rise in keys in a nutshell. its not that i want to overpay(yes i consider it overpaying, THE PRICE OF KEYS ARE NOT STABLE), but im forced to just because all the traders from op decide they want to sell for 10% (not an actual or accurate estimate just used for an example) above current (HA! not for long) prices, and then word spreads of ONE successful trade at said price then all traders push that forced price.

outpost will never stop. They are too greedy to

for once i actually feel safe downvoting a key suggestion, theres a lot of collaboration in the comments above me, itll probably get accepted (because it seems like all of these rise-in-key price suggestions get accepted, even if a whole day hasnt gone by since a recent change) but maybe people will start taking into mind the things p*funk [esg] said. but its not like theres a whole lot of common sense going on as long as people have successful trade links as 'proof' from op, dont agree with me? think about the retirement of hats a month ago, price inflation-not actual thinking, price inflation and bad marketing techniques (i.e. 'selling ultra rare hat that is uncraftable and only 70,000~ other one of these exists!').

this comment WILL get disliked due to its offensive nature.

There is a paradox here. The biggest trade site, tf2op, has traders who assign their prices over 1-2 scrap of backpack.tf's max price. There is no other explanation of increasing of key prices 1 scrap every week. 3.77-3.88 was a mistake, I can't prove that but there are still people selling at 3.66 both on tf2op and on trade servers. 3.88-4 ref is gonna be a bigger mistake.