http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/32985 Sold it for a cloudy moon Hustler's Hallmark (13.7-14 buds in unusuals, possible sweets but I'll look into it)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/39876/2 Sold for a cloudy moon brown bomber (He DEFINITELY added a hell of a load of sweets for this, but it was still included in the trade)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/17456/7 Sold for a lantern tyrant's helm (Very old, probably not valid anymore)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7829250 Shows the items that were the bought using the dragonborn (Some sweets may have been involved, too)

There may be more proof to come, but as I should mention this is a baseline price and will be subject to change. And there's an extreme lack of evidence for this particular hat/effect as it's a 1 of 2 (With one of them being in a very loving trader's backpack for a long while, and it's only just been put back on the market.