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People are putting the BO at more than 3 buds ([url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8570530[/url], I think it's a good suggested value, because this hat was sold many times at ~2.5b, and no one will accept to sell it lower than 2 buds.
That's just one trade, there are more trades in OP, B/O's don't count.
I followed the prices for 6 months. It's based mainly on my memory, sorry if i can't find other proofs. :/
Its a pity your memory doesnt count as proof.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8570530
2 buds offer
Same guy collecting 3,5 as below
Smoking cannonball if he adds (cannon is ~3)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8339647
Vivid ushanka + 1 bud (~2.4)
3.5 pure offer, never collected it seems.
So yeah good suggestion, 2-2.5 seems fair as the only higher offers are from that guy who seems to be collecting for weeks. But with a 2 pure and 2.4 unusual offer, upvote.