Suggestion: Mann Co. Supply Crate Key at 3.88–4.11 ref

Long's urgency to price keys is annoying especially since tf2finance currently is not at 4 refined or above. This suggestion, if it passes, will just fuel raging, arrogant people on reddit into saying that backpack.tf is corrupt is the sole reason why keys are rising so fast along with having profit motivated moderators that only accept prices because they want to raise their own backpack value: [url]http://www.reddit.com/r/tf2trade/comments/19ssja/psa_backpacktf_corruption/[/url].

I agree, Long isn't adding fuel, he's adding Nitroglycerin to the fire

link 4 unsold all, link 5 still have it, link 6.... no, link 10 cannot be used as proof because price change everytime 12 cannot be used too, basically the ones at 4.11, downvote

Thank you for telling me...but I believe you meant to post this directly under Long. I am not the suggester of this suggestion.

xD sorry

long's key hoard shrunk surely. maybe because: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8921418 ? :)

I sell at 1.37 and restock at 1.3 so I never lose any key out of selling keys or cash

My opinion what makes price's go up:

1. Long, of course

2. Backpack.tf admin's, why do they accept these suggestion's? x.x

3. Tf2 finance. Becouse long is like: OH LOOK TF2 FINANCE SAYS 203012312 keys, lets price key price to 203012311-203012313 keys a key!

4. TF2 Outpost user's, whenever key price is 3.44 ref - 3.66 ref, keys go 3.55-3.66, 3.55-3.66 = 3.66-3.77 etc. etc.

So you are blaming everyone that speaks the truth about key price because you just want keys to dropped

I don't want to get keys dropped, but i don't want to keys rise.

Blame outpost, blame the buyers, blame Halloween, blame sellers, blame the uselessness of metal. Don't blame people that just reporting on facts

If you're going report facts about keys twice a week, this will not go well.

and I blame those 4 things diffrentely

Again, don't blame me because key increase price so quickly

i can blame you all I goddamned want to. just slow the hell down with the suggestions

also

*Long218 buying backpack by keys*

...lol?

1. Don't shoot the messenger

2. Don't shoot the judges

3. Don't blame the thing that tracks key sales. No, Finance is just a corrupt program and is always manipulating the prices *facedesk*

4. I hope you're blaming buyers, too, because buyers tend to accept the higher prices immediately.

Erm, not going to argue, but here's my respond

1. You're right, but messenger keeps making price go up way too over and over.

2. Judges would be perfect if they knew what they're doing with (KEYS ONLY) prices

3 and 4. Well, finance tracks prices of keys, great! But we all know how tf2outpost is very popular website. But yes i'm blaming buyer's couse they buy at higher price then intended in backpack.tf price, which makes tf2finance go up.

I don't hate you, here's upvote because hour ago I was kinda rusty

Jesus long, half of your sellers at 4 ref are above are either unsuccessful, dropped their price to 4 ref (2nd and 3rd from the bottom) or selling at 4.33.

Nice use of just spamming links to make it LOOK like adequate proof.

Though some have sold, a lot of those 4.11 keys you linked remain unsold. Closing this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFzLd8EK3sU&list=LLUFhtqo0pxIBHL04yibANUw

"your jus doin et 2 rise youre bp value"

Said 80% of people who will be commenting in here in 5 seconds....

I laugh at the people who dislike this comment. I already see too many people saying "You're just trying to raise your BP value!" without sarcasm.

This is your, what, fourth key suggestion in a month?

*726th

/10char

You can just add spaces to the end of your post if it doesn't fit as seen below.

Example

Uhh, thanks for the information on how to comment with more spam.

Now we'll have people running around posting happy faces.

Also, I already talked to Brad about this, he said that it's to limit people from spamming messages, and that people who knew about it shouldn't be abusing the right to have messages shorter than 10 characters.

Sorry, I was simply trying to help qLight.

He was making a joke, I don't see how you were helping out.

Oh look, he has 330 of them, he's only doing it to raise his BP value. Upvote from me.

I bought mine for 3.77, so I want to sell it for more, please raise the price!

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9092876

[/irony]

i upvoted as well, i want my bp value to increase

You can't even spell "added" right.

I know,right?

sorry, I was in a hurry, can't remember why...

I also reject this idea that people are suggesting key price increase just to up value their backpack. If that were even moderately apparent the suggestion would be crushed every time, just like any other price suggestion that is not supported.

Solid proof, I suppose I should upvote.

I'm genuinely worried now. The TF2 economy might have to abandon keys as a usable currency if they keep hyperinflating. There's not much else to use as an alternative though, except possibly ToD tickets. Then again, keys also have the value of being the only way to acquire new unusuals, so if we abandon them then unusual prices will break as well.

TL;DR gg no re-conomy

We'll abandon using keys because the value of keys is going up? Tell me more.

Well, not necessarily, it's just that eventually we'll reach the point in which keys are so expensive that they'll just be impractical.

~~inb4 everything I say gets downvoted just because Baloo responded in a disagreeing manner~~

If people follow me religiously, then that's their problem. Anyways the whole reason keys are rising is because people would rather be paid in keys. In this case keys are becoming more and more practical to trade with rather than metal which to most traders just seems to be losing value biweekly.

That might be a factor, but I think the Steam Market also has to do with it. Why would you buy a key for $2.50 when they're in the market for cheaper? Keys are exiting, but not entering the economy, which might be the main cause.

Not actually true, there are more keys now then before halloween...

The better question is this..

of the keys in the market, how many are being sold for ref and how many for $ in the marketplace? Now i don't have any exact numbers, but i have a hunch that the $-sales account for a pretty large number (which would lead to a lower key supply being traded for ref)<--just speculation on my part.

You mean metal will be abandoned. Keys aren't really changing in value (same prices for unusuals, buds, $$$), metal's going down, hence the constant increase in the cost of keys in metal.

Metal is not actually going down in its trade value. It still has the same trade value we just need larger units of metal.

It is still curious to me why buds/bills would go up in value along with the key.

Metal ain't going to open my crate. Abandon that and stick to keys lol

Exactly. What we need to change this situation is for crate #56 to be introduced. Until then, this speculation about the price of keys will continue. After that we can have a new debate about the value of the key. My prediction is that the price of the key will fluctuate with how successful each crate release is going forward.

Here's a suggestion for the people who keep complaining about key prices:

Stop buying keys

You keep saying it's BP's fault for raising the prices when BP is actually looking at you and saying "Why are you blaming me? You're the one who keeps buying these things for more metal. I'm just telling you how much you're buying for."

And don't think you're off the hook, sellers. I know you don't care about rising key prices because that means more metal for you, but you share an equal amount of blame as the buyers for being greedy. Besides, what are you going to do with more metal? Buy more hats that you probably won't wear?

Just a comment: Everyone is a buyer and a seller so really you are talking to the same person when you are referring to "buyers" and "sellers"

Yeah, that's the case when it comes to resellers at least, which I was mostly referring to when I said "sellers."

When I said "buyers" I was referring more towards people who use the keys for uncrating or just using it for currency and not reselling (like me).

can't it's like gas, how can we get a bills hat with metal? 8 keys, or like 31.55 (some odd number :| whan a year ago it was like 24 ref, people will always buy gas, when gas is proven "uneffiencient" the price of fucking corn will go up, for some corn fueled car, then solar panels, then electricity, we need transportation, some as we need keys, and before anyone says "just use a bike" have fun driving 30 miles a day to work.

Here's the difference between gas and keys:

Keys are an optional part of the game, gas is not an optional part of commuting to work (if you're kinda far that is). If rising key prices upsets you that much, just stop buying keys and get your friends to do the same thing.

If I remember correctly, someone setup a Steam Group that is boycotting key buying. You can live without buying keys, can't you?

Yeah I'm in that group

*edit*

I see how I worded that weirdly now lol sorry was tired when i typed it,

what I meen is it's like gas because no matter what, some one is going to buy it, because they feel they need it, if someone feels they need a new strange or a promo etc, they will buy it for any given price, because after all until this cycle ends the high end today, is impossible tommorow. But I'm glad I don't buy keys anymore, they are hella expencive

Because we can't have more than two days between key suggestions.

2 days :O hmmm...

too short

/sarcasm

inb4 comment war

you're a bit late on that pal.

Go ahead trying to raise 330 keys of your own huh, given that you have so many you need just as many links showing 4.11 not like 20 but 330 showing that people are selling for high end of 4.11. Given the amount of keys you have is ridiculous and more ridickulous how your trying to raise the value. "IM NOT DOING IT TO RAISE MY BP VALUE I ONLY HAVE LIKE 330 KEYS".

he is trying to raise his bp value, that's the only reason for this suggestion, obviously

Here, take this:

[/sarcasm]

Technically his bp didnt go up. Keys will still be 1.30-1.35 on paypal where you get real money and where it matters.

When someone wants to lower keys price and there's a lot of good votes, admins don't accept. Raising keys, lots of good votes, admin accepts.

Seriously, just ditch the voting, its meaningless anyway, seeing admins can decide what to accept without even needing to look at the votes. We don't need a false impression that voting can affect prices (and prevent a mass of silly upvotes/downvotes)

Voting does have an impact, BUT something to realize is this...Most people don't want keys to go up, so naturally it'll have a lot of dowvotes...

a LOT of people vote based on what they want to happen rather than what is actually happening. (Which is why voters are a 100% guarantee.)

Well... http://scrap.tf/keys

The people who claim that backpack.tf causes the raise in the price of keys are ridiculous. You need decent proof to raise the price of keys. What I think happens is that demand is so high for keys that any posted trade at a fair price will get insta-added. Then, the next time the seller sells keys, they feel like they should raise the price a little because it was too fast. It's kind of like a big oligopoly with everyone trying to max their profits by selling and raising prices. However, I will admit that backpack.tf facilitates the raise in prices a little because many people do not research all of the trades on OP and look on finance and stuff, so they go to pricing sites like these to see what keys are selling at. If you are willing to sell item X for 2 ref, but the suggested price on backpack.tf is at 3 ref, you will most definitely look to sell it at 3 ref to max your profits even though you were willing to sell it lower.

I'd say this sums up the situation perfectly.

as awesome as it is, this is part of the problem: http://backpack.tf/api

It works fine for some items, as long as the votes are sensible and the suggestions not utter BS. Keys however I think is the problem

If the keys weren't voted on so ferquently we could see if the market would automatically settle around a price or keep spiking. As it is everyone is using the backpack bi-weekly increases as a predictor, a trend to be considered worth money, more than their own market experience.

You KNOW keys are going up, buy up today, wait a few days, sell for the new price, and if they haven't suggested it yet, just keep selling for that "new" price and eventually it'll get voted up anyway. You may get to be the proof.

Its a self fulfilling price panic. Hard to reconcile how to handle it, other than to just... not report a price change in keys very often, but people don't like that idea i guess.

I still think its bogus to consider a price trend as accurate after only observing it for a few days. How do we know it wouldn't settle again, or just climb more slowly if backpack wasn't enshrining this trend in orthodoxy with a successful vote every 3-4 days?

The problem is that people look at the price and it says, for instance, 3.88-4 Refined. So then they create a trade that is selling for 4.11 so that they get better income, and then the people on backpack.tf have lots of proof of keys being sold for that so they suggest a new price of 4-4.11, then those same traders see it and start selling for 4.22, and then that just repeats. I hope i described myself in an easily understandable way. Anyway, that is just what I think is happening.

THANK YOU!!! That's exactly what I said last week. That damn cycle... soon it's going to be like 10 ref and if people don't buy, the market will probably crash :(

This is all not true. If you were trading any other item, like the deus specs, and every time u posted at 2.33, it sold within an hour then u would move it up a little until you didn't get as many offers. Ive noticed that with several items. Some similarly priced items seem to go faster. If it happened enough you would research it and make a suggestion that the price move up just like any other item. its only a "cycle" as long as there appears to no be a ceiling. That's our problem here. No one is sure where the ceiling is and many don't understand why it is rising so consistently.

Keys are a currency item and in much higher demand then deus specs for instance. There will always be desperate people who will buy keys from whoever they find first, even if their price is slightly above the market average, which won't happen as much with non-currency items. These sales just get turned into evidence for a price increase, which also doesn't usually happen for other items which have much less demand and which people don't invest in.

There's one problem with your theory. Someone is buying those keys. None of what you said would be a problem if people weren't buying those keys at higher prices.

This isn't the first time that sellers have overcharged for keys. In the past, sellers would always try to get a scrap more, but buyers weren't biting. For some reason, buyers are biting now. You can blame the sellers, but buyers are just as guilty for all this.

well many (now) have a mindset, the highend today, is impossible tommorow. Not justifing buying past 3.33, but...

Looks like someone doesn't like being told the truth that buyers are also to blame for the raising key prices. I've said it once and I'll say it again. If buyers stop paying so much for keys the price will stop going up.

It's worth mentioning that some people will price their keys based on current suggestions, key prices have only been going one way for the past few months so it's a pretty safe bet they can keep going up. So any suggestion to raise a price actually helps itself to pass, its a self fulfilling prophecy as more people use it as justification or a guide to raise the price.

We all know thats its a pretty easy trick to buy something for a price that's very soon going to be changed to something higher. So, these suggestions aren't a case of 'here's a new suggestion, discuss' they're actually a case of 'here's a new suggestion, it'll make itself happen just by being here'.

In the next 3-4 days a new key suggestion will be posted..

Inflation in Keys and Metal!!

Does that include suggestions lowering keys? If so, there have been ten key suggestions in the last 3-4 days, and there likely be the same amount in the next 3-4 days.

In my opinion, i believe the price of a Mann Co. Key should stay at a mere 3.88 - 4 ref because i believe that if the price rises higher, then people will start piling in complaints and start whining about it, just saying

You says that like they didn't complain already

Negative 5 on a rational comment?

Key suggestions really do bring out the irrational side of people, don't they?

well it is a "dislike" comment now, no-offence to long, but people kinda "dislike" him when it comes to keys

They're just bitter at rising key prices, doubly bitter because it's Long and he has 300+ keys in his BP.

Aw man, I was a couple days off. When will the next suggestion happen, tomorrow or the day after?

another price rise by the same person who did it last time

what a surprise!

I feel insulted.

Welcome to the Great Bull Market ladies and gentlemen.

Owns 330 keys and wants the price to go up? I wonder why...

Still better than seeing me owning 650 keys right ?

Yes (:

But the price of keys is STILL $1.30. Refined is dropping. He doesn't get any extra value out of dropping refined.

I got bored and found the first accepted price for keys 8 months ago: [url]http://backpack.tf/vote/id/4ff95f739ae21a051d000000[/url]

goes to the suggestors house YOU WHAT HAVE YOU DONE???

just stop.

long, your keys that you had 600 of, which you paid minimum price before raising the price several times... Did you happen to sell about 300 keys each for more than you bought them?

maybe partly because you raised the prices of them?

btw, HELL NO IT'S NOT WORTH OVER FOUR REFINED METAL GOD DAMMIT

I looked through a few of your "4.00 and above" in your proof, and noticed a trend

Anyone selling for OVER 4.00 has failed to sell nearly as well as those selling at 4.00. They are clearly highballers.

You can also find people buyers trying to pay 3.66 for keys, why didn't you list them too?

There are also buyers at 5 ref for 2 keys, you want me to list them in the "useless proof that support nothing" section . And if you think I have enough metal to buy 600 you are crazy

keys are going up every few days. im not surprised. i don't think keys won't be gonna down anytime soon. people always are trying to get the most profit out of something, and because of that you have so much proof of people trying to get a better deal for keys. i wouldn't be surprised by the end of the month keys will cost 4-4.66 ref but as always you have proof and proof is everything so. upvote :( http://puu.sh/1quO6

I will just copy paste my post from the previous key suggestion (with a bit editing), since no one gave any answer. (and because I saw people on bp.tf like copy-paste so much!)

___________________________________________________

Could anyone explain me, how are the keys "rising" so fast?

I mean, now. Not at halloween, or when the steam market came out.. (no one cares about those events anymore, it's already March.)

If it is about the high demand of keys, then why the $ prices didn't rise from 1.3$ to ~1.5$ or even more? If the DEMAND cause the key-ref inflation, then the demand have to inflate the $ prices too, since the higher demand affect the paypal $ trades aswell. And the price of keys in $ doesn't have anything to do with refs, only the higher demand can rise the $ price of keys.

So if im right, it is NOT caused by the demand.

Then what? It is about the dropping ref price? How? Why?

It seems (at least to me) the population of TF2 is in shrinking. (Last time when it increased, was maybe when the MvM came out, and only for a little time.) So I don't think the number of refs in-game increased so much to rise the key prices 1.33 ref in ~3 months. While we all know it has been increased only a rec (2.33-2.66) before halloween, in ~a year.

Stats.tf:

Refined-Metal - 1,235,492

Mann-Co.-Supply-Crate-Key - 478,319

So, Ref/Key ratio = 2.58 Ref

with reclaimeds and scraps still only 3.43 Ref

I would like to see an experiment, what would happen on the market if the backpack.tf admins would set the key-ref price to 3-3.33 or 3.11-3.44 (or lower) for an (X) amount of time. It could show if bp.tf really inflate the key-ref price, and dictate the market, or not.

(In my opinion it is, but so many people try to deny it, and defend this site. While it is clear, keys started to rise so(/this) much since bp.tf got more popular.)

For the average trader, backpack.tf is the new spreadsheet, the new trading bible. No matter how much do you want to deny it, it is a fact now, and you have to deal with it.

One does not mention that word at bp.tf :D

Spreadsheet was never used more than bp.tf

proof plox?

I didnt provide proof

People downvoted my post D:

The demand to exchange metal for key is up.

Ref isnt dropping (well it has, just not dropping significant for low tier items) Keys aren't going up.

Its just less people willing to swap in keys for metal.

It's like the stock market. People realize that keys are going up in price, so now everyone is rushing to get all of the keys that they can (for metal) to sell it higher (for metal) at a later time. Money will be a bit riskier because there is no evidence of that market rising in the future.

People who try to gain profit from the change of a currency's exchange rate are truly the worsts. (long time ago the 2.55 buyer, 2.66 sellers were ok, at least they didn't inflate the currency!) Nowadays people do it for "profit", which means for scraps, probably it is the least profitable method of trading. And thanks to the endless key rising, the "profit" which they gain equal with 0, because the metal getting worth less and less even in $, so they can get more craft hats and misc, and then? The craft hats/misc $ prices also dropped. So where is then the profit? They inflating one of the main currencies which affect the whole economy, just for few scraps.. which means in $, ~0$ profit!

All the items which valued in refs will be a victim of depreciation, for e.g. craft hats already lost around 1/3 of their worth in $ (or more), while the items valued in keys preserve the same $ value as before (except if the supply-demand changed during this time). There will be too large grap (in both metal, and $) between hats/misc priced in refs, and the ones priced in a key(s). It can cause an economic crash/crisis in the lower-priced item section which could easily affect and pull down the worth of the 1-2 key worth miscs/hats aswell. (Or even the whole economy, because it is a currency.)

I would have a suggestion: Because I saw many people complain about "he's only doing this to raise his BP value!" Backpack.tf should estimate the value of backpacks in keys, instead of refs.

Backpack.tf is not corrupt and is not the reason the keys are rising. Jews on outpost.tf and bazaar.tf overprice EVERYTHING including keys.

i agree with you about the outpost thing but try not to be a bastard toward jews

Anne frankly, I'm not sure how people do nazi these puns coming.

I give up.

Freaking done if this passes.

Same guy making another price increase.

Woop de doo. Not even going to argue this time.

I'd like to reserve your stuff.

Gave my stuff to my friend LOL

Lol.

I dont think a change in key prices affect the gameplay or your hats or your weapons. It'll juts cost you some more free metal to get a key, for that crate.

I dont understand what you're done with....

There is so much wrong with this statement. But I'm not going to argue.

I'll still play TF2, but trading? Neit.

Amen, I've been selling my stuff (Cashed out 8 buds last month) and have trades up where I'm just itching to lose profit so I can get the shit I want then I'm done... Maybe I should sell a hundred keys for 2.33 each.

Oh wait, but then if anyone tries to use it for proof they'll say "That's just one trade, that doesn't count."

unless it sells for higher ;)

WHAT THIS GAME ISN't ABOUT HATS???

naw I've been kicked from f2p servers for not having a good enough unuasal

true story

Upvote

I wonder how many people will dislike my comment...

0. First of all, its too far down the line.

You could say that again.

https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSmB0L64kw8mUeTBjEflR5AaG426_5hA61Yt3d7Q42nFIzKhihp

^THIS!!!

OT: So, yeah. I don't think we should use TF2outpost for proof anymore. That place has too many seller highballers and too many buyer lowballers. Just my opinion.

Those lowballers paying 4 ref for keys. ;)

and in a week

"those lowballers paying 4.33 for a key"

month

"those lowballers paying 5 ref for a key"

halloween 2013

"those lowballers paying 55 ref for a key"

mother of god :<

fml what is this bs!?!?!?!?

Speak English, this isn't an IM school.

i got banned once for saying ass, so i probably shouldnt translate that

ass.

now bannu you

hmmmm, now this common raise in price has got me wondering-do we need to raise the price? its all obvious in SOME of the comments above me, its just a cycle now i can buy a key then say i sold it for 4.33+ and id be contributing to the rise in keys.

im seeing alot of proof/evidence of key trades but is there a reason it needs to get changed every two days? are there traders who are starving to death because they cant sell their last key for that extra scrap? i know this will get disliked but will one person give good reason on why the price needs to keep going up without letting the price of keys stabilize? or am i just a dick who is '2 poor, hahahaha ur loser tuco!'?

Lol, I noticed this a week or two ago, yet not enough people have caught on to downvote these suggestions

Am I the only think that this one isn't going to be approved? Could still be wrong tho :(

actually, im done here-im not going to upvote or downvote. i dont care for an actual reason because i already know what answer i can get from everyone on this site.

i will not contribute to the price of keys rising or falling, why? because its obvious YOU PEOPLE CANT HANDLE THE PRICE OF KEYS! (nuff said, but ill go on further cause why not?)

its not that the number of actual keys existing has gone down, its not because of a corrupt group of bp.tf admins, or highballing kids on op, its the fact that people cannot handle the market on keys.

Omg Long, Stahp!

I know right

The feedback loop grows stronger with each passing suggestion.

hmm i must tell u

DONT LET THOSE MELONHEADS TAKE UR KEYS THEY SAY : 4.11 FOR KEYS AND 1 DAY AFTER THIS KEY IS 4.11-4.33 >:C i remembre when key was 2.66 and when the halloween came the key was 3 ref and after that u said its the opening madness but the opening madness is over allready >:C

hell it's been over for ... 7 months

Can you just stop long -_-

At this pace the economy will crash in a few weeks more, and then I'm going to laugh, and laugh, and laugh.

few weeks...

6 scraps in key suggestions later :< 3.33 don't seem so bad

I doubt that it will crash unless this site will remove that douches no offense couldn't make price suggestions on key or it would even remove dis thing like price suggestion would make a group of peeps which would control the pricing market

With the constant devaluation of metal, it's amazing people are still accepting it as payment, especially for key purchases. The idea of trading keys or any high-valued item for a currency that's at a constant decline of worth grows less and less enticing, and it shows with the general community's opinion whenever a change of price is suggested for either metal or keys. I'm perplexed as to why any person in their right mind would sell their keys for metal? I'd hate to see a point in time where most players would rather use that metal to craft a hat rather than buy a key with it, where the profitability rate between crafting a hat and buying keys would be the same. Metal is not worth it anymore.

And the loop continues.

Good job to you, who insists on buying keys.

Good job to you, who buys keys and resell higher to have very little or no profit at all, because you will buy them again at the same price you sold days ago.

Good job to you, who submits a new key price suggestion every day.

Good job to you admin, who approves key price suggestions every 2 days and won't let the market breathe.

You all are helping this mess. Don't complain. Don't make up excuses. If you want it to stop, just do the opposite of the above.

The funny thing is, keys will never crash. There always will be demand because of crates. Specially when new ones (and #50) are released. And even more on halloween and other events.

How hilarious

The price of keys broke 4ref as gas broke $4

To all the haters, have you all forgotten that this is a video game?

I think bp.tf should disable key pricing for like a month and see what happens to the market. People say bp doesn't effect the market. We'll lets see then.

I tried wtih awesome to get long to stop, he wouldn't :/

GLORIOUS DONATOR STATUS GRANTS YOU UNLIMITED POWERS

Agreed.This should definitely happen.People just can't understand,and its sad.

they understand...But where was this meeting I missed that said keys need to go up everyday??? aperently we are missing something :|

/sarcasm

oh god not him again

Reposting from the last suggestion because I posted too late

So, everyone knows tf2finance.

Have you noticed the little chart below the main chart? That's the price of earbuds throughout TF2 history. Go find the time between February and March of 2012. A sharp decline in price! From 26 to 19 keys, over a quarter of price decrease! Sure, the price of buds is back to 27 keys now, but there was a year for it to rise slowly. That's the burst of a bubble.

We all know that the drop system, by giving every person ~10 weapons each week, increases the metal supply with no increase of demand, therefore lowering the value to the metal. In a way, metal is slowly becoming worthless. Keys get consumed and turned into stranges, unusuals and other uncrated items, while many forget the purpose of metal is to craft, therefore keeping metal in the market with no decrease in supply. Keys come in and out of the market, while metal comes every day with little decrease in number. That contributes greatly to the decline of metal value,

A bubble burst refers to when people realize that they have been paying over an item's intrinsic value. There will always be demand for keys, yes, but will you be willing to pay 5 refined for a key? 6 refined? 7? When the day people no longer want to pay the high price for keys, the bubble bursts. People expect the key prices to rise with no bound, suddenly finding themselves without any buyers, either because no one is willing to pay the price or unable to afford the high prices. Keys are supposed to be a currency, and not a luxury item. Right now, the key prices are following what is called the "Greater fool theory", which means people know that keys aren't worth above, say, 3 ref, but is still willing to pay 3.66 for one because they know there will be a "greater fool" out there that pays 4 ref for their key. The cycle only ends when the seller fails to find the fool. Right now, there are a lot of fools running about and they unknowingly contributed to the rise of key prices. We can only wait until the day people start realizing that they are overpaying and refuse to pay more. That's how the bubble bursts. It will be damaging to the economy, yes, but less damaging then unbounded growth.

tl;dr Stop buying keys at ridiculous prices

Well said. anyone that is smart knows this shame most people still buy keys at insane prices wanting profit.

I cant wait for the key market to crash :)

Coming soon to an outpost near you : Selling keys for 4.33

Keys are rising on a daily basis now.

This trading community is being corrupt.

I don`t know anymore

In many of the links provided above people have raised their prices to 4.33, if you check Outpost right now sales of 4.11 and 4.22 are being sold out instantly. Something tells me this price won't last long...

>2013

>Buying keys with metal

Can't believe that people still do it..

The thing is, once you raise the price people will try to sell it above market price.

And then this will start all over again, untill keys are over 9000 ref.

And since these are more of guidelines then actual prices, i would say stop the price increase of the key for atleast one month or so.

we will need to stop buying keys if that what you suggest,but i cant stop do that just because the keys are expensive!!my aim after all was expensive hats from the day i start trading.i cant change my priority in trading.just because a tool is overpriced that will keep my profits in an halt,and that is not acceptable!

problems occured by the highest key price

is that you can craft a hat and save a ref : acceptable

is that you can buy more hats : acceptable

rising my overall value : acceptable

make profit quicker for most of the traders : acceptable

made ref idling less profitable : acceptable

made promos and unusual hats cheaper : acceptable

i can live with that . you?

oh the fame wars of the key suggestions!

I will say it again!Tf2 mann co. keys rise because of the vast demand for the key carrency!key is not only a tool in tf2 economy but a tool in steam community.

you spent them for keys and fancy hats!

its the best if the key becomes more expensive over time every time for the tf2 players that can happen!

Guys lets just sit back and wait for the key market to crash :)

4 refined already for a key. 4 refined for one key. Just stand back and think about that. I am so glad I got out of small item trading.

No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No.

yes

Some men just want to watch the world burn.

Nothing personal, but http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KAWV6lyI5Q

I see more players who pay 3,66 ref for 1 key

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8937049

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8952918

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8926715

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8990716

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8912467

so 3.66 should be the new price?

4 ref or 4,11 is to insane this price

It really doesnt matter if you upvote or downvote. Because

its going to get accepted somehow.

Backpack.tf = fucking garbage.

Key seller controlling the key market - lol what the fuck moderators are looking at? Oh, wait, he has a donator status. That's fine then, everything is ok. Forget what I just said, upvote.

How does donator status have anything to do with it?

(skips the entire proof)

This suggestion will only be accepted because this man donated!

People mass upvote this because his name is purple, this was proven many times already.

You mean like the last key suggestion he did? Yeah that was totally mass upvoted.

Also you applied to be backpack.tf moderator, but your thread got locked for you being rude. You really can't blame moderators when you yourself wanted to be one.

Did you even read the thread? It got locked just because I am new to the site lol. While others were obviously baiting me, I remained calm as a moose. And this is absolutely not related to this suggestion.

we shouldn`t give a range to the currency.

using a strict suggestion as 4 or the average in any time

will result to sellers and buyers to create their own range then if you got demand for a higher price that will be easier to prove as buyers will stick to the suggestion and sellers profit a scrap.if both values are happenning is only because its natural for resellers to sell above the suggested price!

i know its hard to follow me here as my english are a pain in the ass for all of you.

nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

The way I see it this price trend is going to split the tf2 trading community into two separate parts: the metal market and the key market. As keys become more expensive the price of converting metal into keys will become untenable for all but the richest traders. As keys keep rising people with keys will become more reluctant to sell for metal as the value of the resulting metal would depreciate within a matter of days due to the actions of individuals such as Long218 constantly putting up price increases and influencing the market paranoia. As the value of keys rise the volume of key transactions will drop considerably. Since typically the profit margin on keys is a scrap or two key traders will find it less and less profitable to buy and resell keys since a 1 scrap profit on, say, a 6 ref key, is a poor return on investment since that margin of profit can be made on craft hats. So basically people involved in trades that typically use metal, such as craft hats and lower tier stranges, will be completely cut off from the key market at the current rate of inflation. And the people involved in key trading will be less willing to get involved in the metal market, creating a pseudo-separate trading community. Soon the only people mixing keys and metal will be key resellers selling to each other, or trying to.

4 refined? Good proof, but i'm not going to vote. This is just to damn painful for me to observe.

There is absolutely no proof against these outrageous key prices. No matter how much it pains me to upvote, I will, but only because of the massive, and I mean MASSIVE, amounts of people purchasing keys for 4 refined all over the place. God. The price of keys are eventually going to get to 5 refined, I swear.

good old days when i could buy keys at 3.66 each...

Remember when key was 1 ref? Pepperidge farm remembers.

I remember when key was 1 crate for the first few hours of keys & crates. Glorious.

2,44-2,55 3.66 Is preety new price

Upvoted. I myself buys at 4.11-4.22 and even then I dont get much sellers.

and tommorow you won't get any :D

We need to stop some of the blame, guys.

It's NOT backpack.tf's fault.

It's NOT Long's fault. (I don't like him though, don't get me wrong)

It's the fault of the key resellers. Too many people buy keys just to resell them - THIS is what causes the inflation. Just look around outpost, check the buyers. Nearly ALL try to resell for a higher price. This greedy kind of traders causes that the 'cheap' keys are sold out immediately. And those few who actually NEED keys to buy high tier items, usually have to buy their keys from the inflated price of these resellers.

And soon after that, the 'old' high end will be sold out too. But key resellers are already asking for a scrap more. And if you need keys, you'll have to buy them from them. They KNOW that they can sell for that price eventually. Once they bought out everything that's lower.

And then long has to suggest the new price, simply because he owns tons of keys. You'd want your backpack to have the correct value too, dont you? That's why he's not a manipulator, just one of the greedy reselling c***s.

If you want this to stop, you have to make sure you don't sell your keys to the resellers.

Feel free to tell me your disagreements.

"Buyers are to blame as much as the sellers"

Yes true in a way.. But its because of the "scare".. and it was created by the circle of websites IMO. (mainly bp.tf since it does the price changing.)

It's a dumb idea to let people continually vote on key prices.. Even if they are selling for that...

Seriously this voting isn't helping the market stabilize at all.. Here is why..

All it's doing is making people more worried and making them buy and buy.. (sellers sell for more because the buyers are buying instantly at high prices & its only because they are so scared of the price rising again..)

Then it all gets used as evidence to rise them further.. (buyers get more scared and continue buying for more..)

So IMO until the voting stops this 'scare' will continue and people will keep buying for more and more.

Key suggestions should've never been allowed in the first place.

Since we have finance, Why do we need key suggestions to track the price..?

My solution: Either leave key price blank until it stabilizes..OR maybe link key price to finance average.. not sure how that would go but we need to try and stop this idiocy.

Only thing i understood so far from this key sugestions every 2-3 days;

Voting on keys are useless.Even defending and making arguments are more useless.No one gives a shi**t,no one understands,then some admin or mod comes and accepts the suggestion,and loop keeps going.

I'm out.I thought bp.tf could be a good alternative to spreadsheet,report the market a little better but no,all it ever does is support inflation by "reporting prices"

It's not like every key suggestion get's accepted. Voting became somewhat useless on key suggestions because most people vote what they want the prices to be. And there are many buyers at 4 ref already and I guess most of them have success selling for 4.11. I'm not saying that's the case for the whole market but for outpost it definitly is. Since finance is still a bit under 4 ref I think it's not the time for this price suggestion to be true.

anyway want to say R.I.P to the TF2 market?

here's some enchanting music going along with it

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrZg1Ve20Zo

Just got yourself a hater!

so i did some serious calculations.

If hese suggestions continue, we should reach 5 ref in about 2 weeks. Oh wait...I forgot that it was long we are dealing with. Make that 1.5 weeks.

That's a weird way to spell 12 minutes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vrdmw9Aac5Y

people whos backpack is full of ref in a nutshell

No matter how anyone votes here the price will be okayed anyway, so really what's the point of supporting a corrupt institution such as backpack.tf has become?

This place is dominated by for profit traders, and people used to flame the spreadsheet? Irony.

You know I would understand if the votes were only a consideration on everything posted here but it looks like the admins pick and choose what they pass for selfish reasons. I'll start trusting the pricing guide here as soon as any and all for cash traders are removed from the admin pool. Without menace of course, I'm sure that one or two don't vote for selfish reasons.

Nor should admins make any kind of price suggestions, two much of that goes on too.

Voting became somewhat useless on key suggestions because most people vote what they want the prices to be (downvoting every key raising suggestion and upvoting a 2.66 ref suggestion for example, no matter if it's true or not).

Admins hardly make any suggestions.

No, very true, I don't think the masses can be trusted either but I have watched other suggestions outright fail regardless of proof supplied, This can only really be due to the fact that admins like making money.

You can have it one way or you can have it the other, by picking and choosing as they do backpact.tf has just become a corrupt institution, which is a shame as it really showed promise. It's no better than the spreadsheet now, In fact I'm inclined to trust that more these days.

Personally I'm hoping that the steam market just starts trading items of all qualities then the only price guide we need will be that and sites like this can then just track the data. All this voting BS can then be gotten rid off so corruptions can not occur. THB I'll probably just move to the first site that priorities steam market transactions for valuations on items that are sold there.

I'd very much like it to be this site as I really like the format. Would have loved BradPitt to have taken this topic up in his recent interview, have not looked at it yet but I know none of my questions were chosen ha, In fact the only questions I had seen taken were from prominent traders.. bit shit that.

These are some heavy accusations. Which suggestions were wrong for the most part but still got accepted without a legit reasoning (mostly finance)?

Edit: Well the interview was recorded 3 weeks ago and afaik he is not talking about that.

Yeah I need to find time to listen to it, it's been sitting on one of my tabs for ages.

The last trade would have to be the vintage bills price rise suggestion, bear in mind I actually want one of these so it's not in my interest to raise the price but the fact of the matter is they sell for higher on the steam market, the user pointed this out but the post was unpopular and it was refused. This same mentality is not seen when we look at key and bud suggestions. Now there are two possibilities we can accept when we look at this 1) The admins are shit at there job and don't understand the market or don't care, or 2) they are acting for selfish reasons. Now as Most admins seem to be for profit, cash traders I would say they very much understand the market. I have made a lot of profit form trading things on the steam market and why I wont say exactly how I make my biggest profits I won't downvote or deny a price range for selfish reasons.

So if I'm making an accusation it comes down to this; Either at least some of the admins here are incompetent or corrupt but either way it makes the pricing here pretty useless. As I say I really like this site, I don't want to see it destroyed by money grabbing, selfish traders and as things currently stand, sadly it's already developing a very bad name for itself. If it was my site, I'd be pretty concerned.

im downvoting from now.... do you guys want keys to go up to 10 ref each? well i certainly dont want that so im not voting form now. keys just keep rising man DAMN!!

Can't we just make a new suggestion for keys to be 2.66-2.77 again? lol xd

It's not as easy as you think, unfortunately Y__Y

Do I agree with the price?

From a logical standpoint, yes.

HOWEVER, The fact that every 2 to 3 days this suggested vote pops up on the front page is very worrying, these suggestions are going up way too fast.

The market never has time to stabilize. As a result people are starting to distrust backpack.tf because they feel a certain group of mods and donators are buffing up the price for their own benefit.

It also does not help that the user suggesting this vote has a lot of keys in their backpack, they would then point to that as their evidence.

Now I know that most of what these people are saying is all bull because they are angry.

This is my point, they are angry because a once easily acquirable currency has been priced out of their reach in only a few weeks. I sympathize with these traders because of this.

Does that mean this whole key suggestions cycle should stop?

No but it should definitely slow down.

We could potentially crash a base currency here at the rate these suggestions are going.

When it will it stop?

5 refined within a few weeks?

6 refined within a few weeks after that?

I don't want to be a part of that, That is why I will stay neutral during this whole keyblitz until something has to change because this is ludicrous.

[TL;DR: Earbuds Crash 2: Key Edition. You heard it here first]