Before I show the proof, I have to say a couple of things:

-Yes, I realize I switched it from keys to metal. I will attempt to explain that with the links in a bit.

-Setting a price on this was a bit difficult because of the lack of trades I found.

But that's not what you came here to see, is it? No, you came here to see proof, didn't you?:

Sellers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9067101 (1 key 1 ref) - Unsold for 2 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7558445 (offers) - No offers on Chapeau for 2 weeks. Last offer was 4.33 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9007014 (1.5 keys) - Unsold for 5 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9042454 (4 ref, but doesn't make it exactly clear) - Unsold for 4 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9020731 (1.5 keys) - Unsold for 5 days. Had an offer of 5 ref, but rejected

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9042347 (1.5 keys) - Unsold for 4 days.

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/944/6/0 - To the Classifieds! Two sellers at 1.5 keys, 2 at 5 ref, and 1 seller at 1 key. And just to make sure that doesn't look wrong in a day: http://puu.sh/2eaoT

Sellers to watch

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9099748 (1.5 keys) - Up for a day. No takers yet

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9100495 (1.5 keys) - Same thing

Buyers

***Just as a note, there were only 3 pages of buyers on Outpost. A majority of them were quickbuyers and half that weren't quickbuyers haven't been bumped in a good amount of time***

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9114430 (1 key) - Said he's buying for 1 key, but trade description says "Not buying." Can't imagine why.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8766735 (3 ref) - One add that we can see 3 days ago and one sold to this guy for 2.6(6?) ref 5 days ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8944985 (3.66 ref) - One for-sure add 6 days ago with multiple adds afterwards, but can't be sure for what

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9086353 (3 ref) - One guy will sell if buyer adds 1 rec (so 3.33)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8913239 (3.11 ref) - One guy was willing to sell for a key, but buyer refused

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8980126 (3 ref) - No one has sold to him at this price for 6 days

Buyers to watch

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9126018 - Wants to 1:1 with a King of Scotland Cape (1 key).

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9097758 - Wants to 1:1 dirty Apparition's Aspect (1 key) with anything on the right, including 70's Chapeau

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9087593 - Wants to 1:1 Mutton Chops and Pipe (3.66-4 ref) for things on the right, including 70's Chapeau. Hasn't been bumped in 12 hours, however.

Others

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8766239 - Wants to swap his low-ish (not really) craft number Chapeau with a clean one. Is also taking offers, but no offers in 2 weeks

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8817782 - Wants to swap his G Chapeau for a Clean one + key and rec. No takers for a week (but an offer for a craft #420 Chapeau for it (why?))

Conclusion

Nobody wants this hat, but nobody wants to sell it for less than 1.5 keys. Kinda difficult to price because nobody wants to buy, yet people are too stubborn to sell for less. 3 ref is a quickbuyer's price while it is becoming increasingly more difficult to sell at 1.5 keys, if it's even possible to sell at that price. You could probably buy at 3.33 if you're lucky enough and if you waited long enough, you could probably sell for 1 key

Counter-proof, questions, other comments are welcome, just be civil about it.