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3 month old price. Not very rare.
Trades:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8685077 - b/o 1.2 buds
-20 keys
-bud + 5 ref
-20.5 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9146514 - b/o 25 keys "quciksale" (open for 6 hours)
-20 keys
-22
-23
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8922197
-20 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9018331
-SOLD for Smoking Helmet Without a Home + Smoking Handyman's Handle + Strange Part: Gib Kills (1.1 + 20 + 1) (!)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8621777
-20 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9130859 - b/o 30 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8822874 - b/o bud + 10 (~1.4)
Since two are currently available for 30 keys or less and there are a few offers declined at less than 25 keys, this range seems reasonable and fair to buyers and sellers.
Teammate of mine sold for a bud very recently. Seems good to me.