Last updated 3 months ago, so it needs an update.

#1 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9174411 (3 days)

B/O: 32 keys, 1 bud + 5 keys

Offers:

Massed Filies Hottie Hoodie (1-1.3 buds) + sweets = ~30 keys considering overpay

#2 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9214842 (2 days)

B/O: 30 keys

#3 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8782981 (2 weeks)

Offers:

Steaming Reality Headset (24-31 keys) = ~26 keys considering overpay

Bubbling Pyromancers (26-33 keys) + ~3 keys in sweets = ~30 keys considering overpay

22 keys

Orbiting Planets Brain Bucket (17-22 keys) + 2 keys = ~18 keys considering overpay

19 keys + ~8 keys in sweets = ~25 keys

#4 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6775953 (3 months)

B/O: 36 keys

Offers:

Nuts n' Bolts Stout Shako (17-20 keys) + Strange Festive Frontier Justice (4 keys) = ~21 keys considering overpay

Hidden "I'll buy it for B/O"

Hidden "i added u, got 36 keys"

#5 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9229697 (1 day, not bumped actively)

B/O: 1 bud

#6 http://bazaar.tf/trade/137989 (3 weeks)

B/O: 2 buds

Offers:

Steaming Big Country (23-25 keys) + ~2 keys in sweets = ~24 keys considering overpay

#7 http://bazaar.tf/trade/146507 (2 weeks)

B/O: 33 keys

Analysis:

Trade Links #1 and #3 are the most helpful here and show that 30 is doable.

Link #4 has had two offers to pay the b/o of 36 keys, but they look like they may have been retracted so I'm not adding it into the range.

Links #2 and #5 are new, and they should be able to get their buyouts pretty handily.