Looking at outpost, the market for it is essentially dead, but that's normal since it's a seasonal item. Look on outpost and you'll only see 2 pages of people selling it, and the ones being sold for 3-5 keys have been up for weeks to months, the longest one was 5-6 months old I think.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/86796696[/url]

There was one I noticed that actually sold, a gold painted one, for 3 keys.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9236290[/url]

Funny thing is that the person who bought it listed it back up for 5 keys, hah, he'll be holding on to that for a while.

Around halloween the amount of these items being listed will most likely go up, but because of competitive selling people will probably list it for 3 keys anyway.

Look at outpost trades searching for the uncraftable skull. Only 1 page looking for a dirty skull, and at the price of 2 keys. The only one willing to pay more for it is my trade because I like the way it looks, but only at 2.5 keys.

Since sellers can't get rid of it at 3-5 keys unpainted, and buyers can't get it at 2 keys unpainted, I suggest 2.5-3.5 as middle ground. I've offered 2.5 for unpainted ones, some have considered, others still stubborn about their price. And I've offered 3 to some with decent paints, same pattern of some considering and some rejecting.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/86794896[/url]

Oh, please look at the comments as well. Speedy Gonsalez has helped show some specific examples :)

Also, I've just sealed a deal for a lime 2011 skull for 3 keys, will have it in my inventory soon.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9247125[/url]