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5 month old price. Time for an update.
#1 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6952101 (3 months)
Offers:
Bubbling Backbiter's Billycock (17-22 keys) - 2 keys = ~16 keys considering overpay
#2 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/3878008 (4 months, same trader as #1)
B/O: 2.5 buds
Strange Festive Huntsman (12 keys)
#3 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9233140 (1 day)
Offers:
Steaming Gym Rat (12-15 keys) = ~13 keys considering overpay
TS painted Bill's Hat + 2 keys + "nice sweets"
#4 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9249583 (1 day, same trader as #3)
B/O: Looking for a low-tier spy hat.
#5 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9224209 (2 days)
B/O: 1 bud
#6 http://bazaar.tf/trade/95217 (2 months)
B/O: 20 keys
Offers:
A few between 10-14 keys
Analysis:
A few trades out there, but not a lot of offers on them. Link #6 looks abandoned and not in his inventory. Jury is still out for links 3, 4, and 5. No significant offers to make me keep the high @ 20 keys. Difficult to place the low, but 14 seems it'd be pretty easy to get.
I just tried to submit almost the exact same thing, and it told me a suggestion already exists. Upvoted.
Aha, great minds think alike!
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9143035 - Sold for 18 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8684107 - Interest in a S.F. Flamethrower (17-18 keys) and O.P. Ushanka (18-23 keys, old price) and an offer of 24 keys that seems to have fallen through
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9113391 - Ultimately traded for a steaming bombing run (17-22 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8162623 - Seems to have gone for a circling peace Gonzila (16-19 keys) + possibly extras
Thanks, looks like I didn't search hard enough. So you think this is a little low then?
Honestly not sure. The sweet spot seems to be in the 16-18 range from the sales. I'd call the TS Bill's + keys offer an outlier. Not sure if it could pull off higher, or if it's at all likely to go for lower.
So 14 seems low then? Would 16-19 be a better range?
My link #5 has a recent offer of 14 keys, but the seller considered that a little low.