Well this price seems to be way off of what the offers the hat is getting. Proof Below:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8942943 only 1 on outpost but you can obviously tell from the offers it needs to be raised:

B/O: is set to 7 buds and he's declining nice offers.

Secret prancers + flies berliners + sweets (~4.5 buds depending on sweets) this is right about in the 4.5 range and it got declined.

Searing Buccaneer's + 1 Bud + 10 Keys. (~4 buds) good offer and it gets declined