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7 Month old price, 13 in the wild, 2 on Outpost
http://backpack.tf/unusuals/182/Vintage_Merryweather (for reference)
Current Trades:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9254790
-2 w. bills + unpainted (28 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9010728
-orb fire little buddy + 4 keys + 10 ref (~29 keys)
Older Trades (not sales):
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8856944 (2 weeks ago)
-buds + ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8808116 (3 weeks ago)
-buds + 2 keys
Ok so current offers appear to easily get 1-1.1 buds. These offers have all been refused.
I'm setting the high end at 1.3 based on:
1. The refused 1-1.1 bud offers
2. This will move this effect up more in-line with planets, steaming, bubbling etc.
I have been unable to find any sales data. It appears that many of the current owners have had them for quite awhile. If you know of sales please chime in. :-)
Oh, got more data :D
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8872377
-Appears to have sold for about bud + 3 keys
I was offered this hat once when I was a noob, but I did not have enough funds
The evidence looks solid. Upvote for now.
But then as forum data shows there will be ill downvotes.