Suggestion: Strange L'Etranger at 1 ref

Price Suggestion

Strange L'Etranger

Submitted Mon, 18 Mar 13 01:27:05 +0000 by ★ borg

87.76%

0.66–1 ref

1 ref

~2 keys

43 votes up

6 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Mon, 18 Mar 13 02:44:43 +0000 by Elsa Payaso.

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Comments

[url]http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/l'etranger[/url] Only 1 for 1 ref

1 ref+ offers/adds/sold

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9353181[/url] Added for 1 ref

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9191234[/url] Added for 1 ref

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8655808[/url] Offer of 1.33 ref, as well as willing 1.66 - rejected .66 - 1 ref

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9326069[/url] Accepted offer of 1 ref, rejected 0.66 ref

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8655808[/url] 4 willing buyers at 1 ref

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9334383[/url] Added for 1 ref

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/3539964[/url] Offer of 1 ref and offer of 1.055 ref

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9251376[/url] Bought for 1 ref

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8715531[/url] Accepted 1 ref

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9379921[/url] Semi-willing buyer 1 ref

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9286649[/url] Offer of 1.33 ref

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9061955[/url] Rejected 0.88

Thats nice, but you have also to proof that its nearly impossible to buy at .66

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8655808[/url] rejected 0.66 ref

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9147119[/url] rejected 0.66 ref

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8948043[/url] 0.66 ref nope.avi

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/2012873[/url] rejected 0.66, 0.77 ref

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9361534[/url] rejected 0.77 ref, accepted 0.88 later

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8715531[/url] rejected 0.66, 0.88 ref

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/641739[/url] offer 0.77 1 week ago didn't accept

Many of those rejected haven't sold, and the .88s are in the current range, not yours.

I know, but it's just one trade out of the many of which have been rejected. One of my proofs indicate offers of 1.33 up to 1.66, but I don't include them because I consider them outliers.

But by moving it to flat 1 ref you're saying it's all but impossible to buy it for less, which both you and I have shown it is not.

Remember that this site isn't a completely strict rulebook. By having this site post a price at 1 ref doesn't mean it's saying that it's impossible. Anything will always be possible. To put a price based on every trade that has ever happened would be a ridiculous thing to do. The price would become 0.11-3 ref or higher from the extremely generous to the extremely greedy. As with any statistics related problem, outliers should be taken out of the equation, and by suggesting 1 ref, I am hoping to represent average (be it mean, median, or mode) value of this item.

One more thing - note how every single trade posted (besides the one on tf2tp) here less than 1 ref is sold out or has a comment made by someone willing to buy it. Quick sell-outs indicate an inaccuracy in the current range as well.

Selling at current range -

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8643244 (.88)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9360414 (.77)

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9249266 (.66)

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9245590 (.66)

Only 3rd is selling. Was bumped 19 hours ago so not much exposure. Rest are sold out. For 3, is there any way to prove he actually sold it and didn't just close his trade when he posted it? I never use tf2tp, so I don't really know how to navigate it.

First still has a L'etranger in backpack and still bumping - second is meant to show it selling at .77, just a couple of hours ago. I think you have the 3rd and 4th mixed up, and Tf2tp usually works by just adding the person and closing the trade after (his notes even say to add him)

1st one, says he's sold out, the one in his bp is next to his spy stuff - he's most likely keeping one to use (I do that when I sell stuff)

Yep, I mixed them up

3rd hasn't been bumped in 19 hours

4th sure

My point is that there are very few trades at the current low end. If I'm to factor in the fact that a few people manage to sell at a bit lower, I would be obligated to include 1.66 in my range, since I found 1 successful trade at it. If not 1.66, then 1.33, where I found I think 3 at that price. For the vast majority, the price is 1 ref, which is why I made it my suggestion.

Going to bed, won't be able to respond to anymore comments.