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Doesn't sell for 3.66 and has multiple sellers for 3-3.33 ref
Painted
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8838870 - gold for 1 key 1 ref (Hat = 3 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8824914 - gold for 5 ref (Hat = 3 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9346026 - TS for 1 key 2 ref (Hat = 2 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9375482 - Pink for 1 key 2 ref (Hat = 2 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9359951 - orange for 5 ref (Hat = 3 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9286317 - Purple for a key (Hat = 2 ref)
3 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9368331
3.33 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9375728 - 3.33 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9368796
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9303231 - 3-3.66 ref http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9361254
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9256900
Unsold for 3.66
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9363493
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9099540 - 1 week
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8503195 - 1 month!
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9280821 - 3 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9168063 - 1 week
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9370141
Doesn't sell for 3.66 ref and there are multiple sellers for 3-3.33 ref, can get even cheaper if painted.
Pretty hard to price painted items so try and avoid that.
Link 1: 13 hours ago, only bumped when trade was made.
Link 2-5: All been sold for 3.33 quite quickly
1st Unsold link: 16 hours old
2nd-5th Unsold link: All Sold
6th Unsold link: 11 hours old, only bumped when trade was made.
Current price seems accurate to me
For the unsolds:
First link has an offer of an Outback Intellectual, which clean or dirty is still worth more than 3.16.
Third link has someone willing to buy at 3.66 only a few days ago, and an offer of a Jefe as well (worth a key).
Fourth link has multiple in his backpack, may have sold one but we will assume he didn't since he has no metal.
Fifth link has sold.
I'm going to stay neutral for now.