Needs a little bump. No one is selling for 3 ref. 1 key is definitely possible but there are quite a number of it remained unsold. Proof below:

Sold for 3.33 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9376529

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4850048 (5 months trade)

Sold for 1 key:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8428207 (sold some)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8773193 (sold 1)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8685435 (sold some)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8750644 (sold some)

My trade (both sold for 1 key):

http://i.imgur.com/wA0DYH7.png

http://i.imgur.com/9xWAygZ.png

Sold at 1 key 1 rec:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9358127 (sold 2)

Buying at 3.33 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/1801155 (there's some willing buyers)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4922646

Buying at 3.66 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9201604 (accepted one guy's offer)