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Actually, there isn't many trade of this rare crate on outpost, just one page :
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/88734241[/url]
You will see that you can't find a crate #19 at less at one key :
-http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8389101 : 1.3 key each
-http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7462536 : 5 ref each
-http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9072344 : 1 key each
Others sellers sold it, and they don't have others in stock.
If multiple people are offering 5 ref for it, shouldn't the high end be 5 ref?
There is an offer for 1 key so around 4.22 ref,so the price musn't go so high I think
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9396124
upvote, got an offer of a key and offer of 5 ref.
If you take the average you get sellers selling for around 4.88 ref so you might wanna take that into consideration.
I would like more evidence as from experience I know sellers consider crate #19 as 1 key.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8389101
more proof :)