Piss-paint needs a small rise at the moment. While there are still a decent amount of 1 ref sellers, it seems entirely possible to sell for 1.33 refined. Not sure how that works, but there's many 1.33 buyers right alongside 1 ref sellers.

Only 2 OP pages, sorry there's not 8 paragraphs of proof, but this should suffice.

Sales at 1.33:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7584035 (Selling for 1.33, many buyers recently in the comments)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9289700 (Selling for 1.33, judging by item history and comments he's sold at least 1 in the last week)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9274565 (Seems to have sold to a person in the comments, who now has a pants-painted unusual now in their BP)

Sellers at 1 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9446278

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9421725

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9345787 (Sold 1 in past 4 days)