Suggestion: Mann Co. Supply Crate Key at 4–4.22 ref

Price Suggestion

~64.56 ref

12 votes up

16 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Sat, 23 Mar 13 07:13:59 +0000 by neverclever.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

I propose we hold the price for a week or two and let the price stabilize before allowing any further suggestions on key prices.

This isn't a protest or "WAAAAH! KEYS TOO EXPENSIVE!" suggestion.

It is merely the fact that every time the price goes up the sellers on outpost (and elsewhere) do a kneejerk price jump to see if they can force another price increase. The voting system is stuck in that feedback loop and has been for some time.

I also suggest that this become a permanent part of the voting system, except for new items which change quickly in price. Price changes for all items should have a cool down period of at least a week before accepting new suggestions to allow prices to stabilize. Otherwise you're not getting valid data. Instead you're letting the sellers dictate the prices on fast moving items.

You folks carry on and discuss like rational people and I'll go and wait for my ban for making a suggestion to make the voting system better as has been implied by some people.

I suggest you read this http://tf2finance.com/2013_03/

I have. It's very nice and fluffy and I don't care.

I'm suggesting that we have a waiting period after price changes to let the market adjust instead of spaz out like it has been, that's all.

From linked:

"This looks like a perfect argument, but the logical flaw lies with “Rinse and Repeat”.

Let’s try to expand it.

1. Someone sees price at Backpack.tf at 2.66 ref and sells his Key on Outpost.

2. Outpost sellers buy them all at 2.66 ref

3. Outpost sellers post trades of 2.77 ref and successfully sell all

4. Backpack.tf records it as evidence and raises suggested price to 2.77 ref

5. Outpost sellers tries to sell at 2.88 AND Someone sees price at Backpack.tf at 2.77 ref and sells his Key.

8. Outpost sellers buy all available ones at 2.77 ref

9. Outpost sellers post trades of 2.88 ref and successfully sell all

10. Backpack.tf records it as evidence and raises suggested price to 3 ref

11. Outpost sellers sell at 3.11 ref

12. Rinse and Repeat

There is a major flaw at step 5. Why would anyone buy at 2.88 if there are people selling at 2.77?"

He proposes why woudl anybody overpay when they can underpay/parity pay. I think anybody who's ever traded for more than day in TF2 can tell you there are some madmen out there who are so reckless with their money that they just don't give a crap. As long as its inside of a ballpark range of the item's value (and I use the term ballpark literally) they'll pay.

In terms of money time is a factor as well. The speed with which you can acquire something alters it value depending on the person involved. My experience is that many people are just so impatient they'd pay 10x more just to not wait for the McDonalds fries to finish cooking.

I find this summary of how to debunk the Outpost-Backpack cycle as awfully simplistic, especially coming from somebody who purports to be a market savvy observer.

There is an inherent illogical nature to trading amongst what primarily are basically a bunch of impatient immature teens who waste obscene amounts of money anywhere they go. These habits are almost as bad in the early 20s period as well.

I don't care if he has graphs. He still used a stupid argument. If he has it all figured out in business school-ese and power point ready, why the idiot argument? Maybe he just likes to pile it on?

I suggest you close this before a ban hammer.

It's a valid suggestion. If they ban me over it, that's their call.

it isn't a valid suggestion. You cannot bump key prices. Please read the rules before you try to change them.

also: http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/603-dont-use-suggestions-to-prove-a-point/?hl=%2Bmake+%2Bpoint

he isn't bumping the price he's just updating it so that keys don't rise to 20 ref by April

>updating it

to the same value. after a day. bumping it.

so then you dislike my comment. I see the maturity in you

I dislike comments that have misinformation. I don't use it as a petty personal attack like you assumed and did yourself.

Keys sitting for a week would make bp.tf look bad, as then

A price for a full scrap up would have to be put on.

Keys are easy sell for 4.22 ref but if you look at other people "Buying for 4 ref" trades you can find many people who added

so yes its ok for now

Base64 's awesome list

Frequently used comments

Section 1

1.You have X Keys in your backpack

2.Nobody buys Keys at X refined

3.Outpost is full of highballers

4.The trades have no takers

5.Halloween is already over

6.Stop the damn inflation

7.I put up a WTB trade at X refined and people added me within minutes

8.By the month of X, we would have Y keys in existence.

9.The number of Keys in existence is actually growing

10.Trades from bots should not be counted as proof

11.Trades from quickbuyers should not be counted as proof

12.Price in Mann Co Store has always been $2.49

13.This has gone too far

14.The market will crash

15.Backpack.tf influences the market

16.When backpack.tf raises the price, sellers charge at backpack.tf price + 1 scrap, and their trades are used as proof again.

17.The vicious cycle repeats!

18.We need to stop this madness

19.1 Key will be 10 refined next month

20.1 Key for your 2 Keys

21.They need to go down

22.I remember that Keys at X refined 200 days ago

23.You can still get them at lower price from trade servers

24.You can buy Keys from Warehouse

25.Look beyond Outpost

26.Prices are rising without a reason

27.You are ruining trading

Section 2

1.You don’t have Keys in your backpack

2.People are buying at X refined

3.Outpost is full of lowballers

4.Keys have always been in demand

5.Steam Market makes Keys desirable

6.I put up a WTS trade at X refined and people added me within minutes

7.People get Refined Metal for free every week from idling accounts

8.The sellers at X refined are out of stock

9.You can’t get them at current price from outpost anymore

10.Keys from Warehouse are always reserved

11.If people stop buying Keys at higher price, they will go back down.

12.The majority of the trading community uses Outpost

13.X Refined reflects the majority of actual trades today

14.If it’s going to crash, let it crash.

15.Find me a seller at X refined

16.Add me if you are selling Keys at X refined

17.X Keys is a quicksell

18.I’m not buying for resell

19.I sold X hundreds of Keys this week at Y refined

20.More crates means more unboxing

Section 3

1.Stop being greedy

2.I don’t care about downvotes

3.I think this is optimal

4.1 Key = X USD, 1 Ref = Y USD, therefore 1 Key = Z refined.

5.No proof downvoted

6.Where’s the proof?

7.You need more proof than that

8.This is not how it works

9.Stop whining

10.Not going to happen

11.Your links are from last week

12.Show me your inventory history

13.One trade does not represent the entire economy

14.Tons of links still doesn’t represent the entire economy

15.We shouldn’t touch the price of Keys

16.Range is too huge

17.Choo choo free rep train

18.The problem lies with Valve Corporation

19.Price is not based on opinions

20.We document prices here, we do not dictate them.

21.Last suggestion was passed X hours ago

22.I won’t vote

23.Prepare to be banned

24.Supply and Demand

25.(Discussions about the Great Depression, 1970s energy crisis, 2008 financial crisis, price of gasoline, milk, and other agricultural produce, gold, silver, and other precious commodities).

Section 4

(Insert valid proof here that helps this site to report true price so that users can make informed decisions.)

This summary covers the comments from the past 75 suggestions.

why