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Link to other suggestion: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/514f5710ba25368e70000001
The OP of the other suggestion is correct in thinking that the price is going down, but 16-18 keys is too big of a jump. There's not enough proof for that range. See my comments on the other suggestion.
I'll add in more proof if necessary.
---------------------------------------------------Other Suggestor's proof and my responses (in bold)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9541893 unsold at 20 keys - Price is now 18 keys + 2 refined, still unsold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9543513 Selling for 19 keys, unsold - Yep
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9538965 unsold at 22 keys - Yep
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9531784 Selling for 20 keys, unsold - Sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9484549 Selling for 20 keys, unsold Sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9541915 Also unsold for 20 keys - New price is 19 keys, sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9540501 Unsold for 21 keys - Yep
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9536659 Unsold for 19 keys Yep
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9520997 Got offers a #40 crate - Not really good evidence, the guy's highballing.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9507261 Unsold for 22 keys - Sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9525477 Unsold for 21 keys - Yep
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9429891 Buying for 15 keys - He's now buying for 13 keys. Doesn't really matter if no one buys from him though.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9308800 Buying for 10 keys Still doesn't matter. Doesn't have an original. Also, the owner seems to have moved his trade here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9554061
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9400677 Buying for 12 keys, claims to have bought one also - Well, he doesn't have one in his inventory, and I checked his past trades. No sign of an original. I think he's lying.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9500400 Buying for 14 keys - Buying for 12 keys now.
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/513/11/0 - Two for 19 keys each
My conclusion: It's too early for a price drop this large.
For the lazy:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9541893 unsold at 20 keys - Price is now 18 keys + 2 refined, still unsold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9543513 Selling for 19 keys, unsold - Yep
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9538965 unsold at 22 keys - Yep
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9531784 Selling for 20 keys, unsold - Sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9484549 Selling for 20 keys, unsold Sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9541915 Also unsold for 20 keys - New price is 19 keys, sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9540501 Unsold for 21 keys - Yep
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9536659 Unsold for 19 keys Yep
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9520997 Got offers a #40 crate - Not really good evidence, the guy's highballing.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9507261 Unsold for 22 keys - Sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9525477 Unsold for 21 keys - Yep
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9429891 Buying for 15 keys - He's now buying for 13 keys. Doesn't really matter if no one buys from him though.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9308800 Buying for 10 keys Still doesn't matter. Doesn't have an original. Also, the owner seems to have moved his trade here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9554061
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9400677 Buying for 12 keys, claims to have bought one also - Well, he doesn't have one in his inventory, and I checked his past trades. No sign of an original. I think he's lying.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9500400 Buying for 14 keys - Buying for 12 keys now.
My conclusion: It's too early for a price drop this large. I would resubmit with something like 18-20 keys. If you don't do it, i'll do it.
-Hatch Rawer Beryl (OP)
i went ahead and copy pasted my responses in the OP. The bold is necessary to see my responses.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9458822
I got one for 18 and many for 19
Upvoted - the suggested range seems to be the trending range.
If you want free rep, atleast don't take all the credit and provide some of your own proof.
I actually had to do some work finding and explaining those links. You know how it feels when someone just takes them and takes all the credit?
I didn't take all the credit. Also, I analyzed your proof. That took about 15 minutes.
You would make a better first impression by finding some proof of your own.
Okay, done. http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/513/11/0 - 2 for 19 keys. Happy now?
1 link? Need And ice pack on your head already?
20 is gettable but only now and prob only for couple days. 19 is good price. upvote