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buyers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9377200 2 bought for 1 key + 2 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9239874 someone offered 1 key + 2 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9306019 someone offered a key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8611657 it is a month old but bought for 5 ref
Sellers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9541025 8 ref, been 1 day nothing
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9397680 took 1 week to sell
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8846411 been 4 weeks cant sell it for 2 keys
I believe that 1.5-2 keys would be a good price for now
Not counterproof so much as showing that the above links ARE NOT good proof, if proof at all
Selling
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9397680
Only 19 views, going to guess this guy doesn't bump very often
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8846411
last bumped 6 days ago, again going to guess this guy doesn't bump very often
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9541025
1 day isn't very much, and the 22 view count makes it more clear that the above guys didn't bump very often
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Buying
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8611657
Quick Buying, should not affect price
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9239874
Specifically says that he's buying a quicksell
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9377200
Quick Buying, reselling in this trade
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9546792
So realistically you have 1 piece of solid evidence there, link 3 of buyers which appears to be a guy quickselling his.
Downvote, sorry.