Suggestion: Mann Co. Supply Crate Key at 4.22–4.33 ref

Price Suggestion

~54.33 ref

415 votes up

607 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was closed Thu, 28 Mar 13 00:02:31 +0000 by the submitter.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

First of all I don't have any Keys, my backpack value is not gonna increase with this suggestion, this is the correct reflection of the current market situation. Please stop complaining about the increasing Key prices, just stop buying Keys at these ridiculous prices and they will go down soon (I stopped buying them when they started to be more than 3 Ref)

http://tf2finance.com/keys/ currently fluctuating between 4.23 and 4.26

SELLING

4.44/4.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8799933 (4.44, sold a few)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9590129 (4.44, no success)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/309376 (4.44, almost out of stock [bot])

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9486606 (usually 4.33, raised to 4.44 due to low stock)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9551050 (4.44 each or 4.33 each for his entire stock, got added for all 26 at 4.33)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9532911 (selling for 4.44 each, got 1 add and 1 offer of 4.33)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9452806 (selling for 4.44 each, got 2 offers of 4.33, no success)

4.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9593893 (added instantly for 3 of 4)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9554435 (quick adds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9373575 (sold out)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9593102 (sold out)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8529233 (just 1 left)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9591175

4.22

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9595478

BUYING

4.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9422193

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9505694

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9016111

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9563210

4.22

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9532993

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9588176

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9361056

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9556812

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9576698

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9563916

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9594773

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9594895

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8440932

-> no sellers at 4.11, 4.22 buyers get an occasional add, but are generally pretty unsuccessful, 4.33 sellers have no trouble to sell their keys, 4.44 sales happen every once in a while, but in general 4.22-4.33 seems to be the going price (supported by my links and the current tf2finance-level)

GG.

EDIT: After making an alt and start from the beginning, I feel your pain. It is ridiculously hard to get into the trading market nowaday if you start off with hardly anything.

The Texas Ragers lose the BP.TF world series!

Long is getting good, people are starting to like his comments on key suggestions!

what your Alt account's name?

Long2013 #fightingagainstkeypriceraising.

OH LAWWD, FITE TEH KEEEEEEEEEEEEEEYS

Edit: y cant i find u fggt?

TF2 Finance:

1 Key = 4.23 Refined

Mar 26, 2013 7:24 EST

I disagree that it supports your suggestion

'currently fluctuating between 4.23 and 4.26'

I'll agree it doesn't support it though, 4.22 straight at this point is fine.

well I wanted to suggest 4.11-4.33 actually, but haven't found a single trade at 4.11 and LOTS at 4.33, just no evidence supporting any other range, multiple quickbuyers at 4.33, I strongly disagree with 4.22 flat

it was 4.26 when I started collecting evidence, dipped down to 4.23, we'll see where it's going the next hours..also 4.23 is between 4.22 and 4.33 and not between 4.11 and 4.22 ;)

4.23 is one crate's worth behind 4.22, it's not even close to 'between' 4.22-4.33.

http://puu.sh/2oxid

cheers for that

It's a wonder key suggestions are even needed on spreadsheets since finance apparently dictates the prices so accurately.

keys on this site are basically for valuing things priced in keys (how much ref does a Bill's cost)

The best way to see what people buy and sell keys at is to take two minutes to look at trades

You stopped buying them at 3 ref. look how much that helped. Maybe you should try to not contribute to increasing the actual price.

tf2finance: now at 4.15

inb4 horrendous shitstorm

That is all.

inb4 'inb4's Edit: dangit Soma

http://youtu.be/AFzLd8EK3sU

Also, the exact same suggestion was rejected 5 hours ago. I doubt there has been a change in the market between 5 hours ago and now.

Incorrect, it began at 3 ref.

Actually, it started at 3.33.

geturfactsstrait

actually! it started at 2.66

*cough cough'

2.77

The 4.22 suggestion didn't even get accepted yet and there's already a 4.33 suggestion.

Are you guys serious.

So what was that theory? bp.tf is causing people to sell 1 scrap higher than what they report? Does this theory also apply to buyers that are buying 1 scrap higher than what is reported?

The problem is that it's a fool's market right now. People are buying at abnormally high prices in hopes that they can sell it to a greater fool than themselves for a scrap higher. The cycle perpetuates until everyone realizes how horrendously overpriced keys are and just stop buying them for so high.

I think it's a self-perpetuated fear that keys will keep climbing, so people buy for higher and they think to themselves "If I just hold onto this for so long, I'll make a profit!" In a way, if everyone has this mindset, then yes, they will make a profit, but it's such a small amount of profit in such a large period of time that the profit is negligible and could be compared to the profit you make each week from item drops.

So yes, everyone is fooling themselves in the market right now.

this^

Why not buy high, the high-price today is impossible tomorrow mindset is killing the price (not killing but...not good for anyone but key sellers)

yeah, because its been so long it's instinct that "hey next week keys will be X refined" so they stock up fast (I.E buy higher) and then wait a week BOOM profit, backpack.tf may not be contoling key prices but it sure as hell pushed the ball down the hill (and didn't bother to stop it)

Go back to my other comment about self-perpetuated fear.

I don't think backpack.tf necessarily pushed the ball downhill; I think key traders did, but now they are blaming bp.tf for doing it.

yeah, ya go me there, makes me wonder if we never changed/recorded the key price during Halloween, Would we be where we are ?

Quite possibly with the only difference being this site not being slandered by so many people.

Just look back at the 3-3.11 ref suggestion back during Halloween (this one: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/50cbc90aba2536e27c000017 ) - one of the proofs shown was a trader looking to buy a key at 3.11 ref, despite prices being 3 ref at the time.

So key prices would've risen without backpack.tf. Traders just wouldn't know who to pin the blame on if bp.tf didn't reflect key prices.

Here's to the suggestion that gets a -500 score and still gets accepted

Well if this was a suggestion for any other item it would get +300, lots of biased votes. No counter evidence so far, feel free to provide any.

There's no counterproof, but I just think that the other suggestion more accurately reflects the price.

that sentence bears any kind of logic..so there is no proof against this, but it's still wrong

No... I think that the proof on this suggestion and the other suggestion just fits the 4.22 price better. Both would be plausible and I'd be ok with either one passing.

No other item gets as much attention or suggestions as keys. Please don't make that comparison. I do however understand and accept why - vote suggestions get accepted. The previous several did not though.

Lol tou make it sound that people are 100% honest when voting for keys, no one wants it to rise.

Ill put up a trade lowerin the prices with NO proof and NOTHING and i bet ill get a crap load of upvotes.

You need to stop thinking that people are homest

Does anyone want to join me and stand back with me while we watch the market crash?

yes, been doin it since -357 3 ref key price can't wait :D

Out of curiosity (and the fact that I haven't gotten a straight answer yet), why would the market crash and when will it happen?

Well, in my opinion (one that is shared by many other people) if base currency drops or raise to high and to quickly, the market becomes unstable. Just picture it as a building, if the first floors become unstable, the whole building has a high risk of collapsing but its hard to know exactly when it will crash.

So you're saying prices raising constantly will cause prices to fall rapidly?

I think if prices fell rapidly, demand would spike, then so would prices, but then prices rose too quickly so they fell again, meaning demand spikes again, so prices rise again, but it rose too quickly....

It's a vicious circle, ya see it?

If people think it will drop demand would be even less, eg the gen. Ap sap, people knew it would crash and stopped buying it at ridiculus prices forcing the price to drop like a rock :)

Same could happen to keys

a lot of people, myself included, have stopped accepting metal in trade. it's become itchy and scratchy money. people that are paying these prices are making their own metal worthless.

Bring em' hell boys!

HE WAS NUMBER ONE!

So now we're pumping out key suggestions while other key suggestions are still open? And people thought it was bad when there was a key suggestion once every week.

other one is incorrect

Link 1: Sold 7

Link 2: why is that even there? Guessing for proof that people try to sell for 4.44 but cannot?

Link 3: Link Isn't working and it looks like a backpack of a bot so not the best proof because we don't know when the bot had begun selling.

Link 4: Seems to have around 4 solid trades but is fairly new.

Link 5: Sadly is pretty good proof.

Link 6: 2 days old and only has what you said. 4.33 offer and 4.44 add

Link 7: 5 days old and again same as you said 2 offers of 4.33 (failed)

Link 8: Added pretty fast. Seems like the seller sold them and bought more with the meal? idk.

Link 9: Sold 3 for 4.33

Link 10: No proof that he has actually sold 30 keys for 4.33. Doesn't even have enough metal in his bp to add up to what he is saying :/

Link 11: Can't look at his backpack but seems to of sold 3

Link 12: Only sold 7 for 4.33

Link 13: Sold four for 4.33

Link 14: Seems to of sold a key for 4.22 real fast.

Link 15: Buying for 4.33

Link 16: Again buying for 4.33

Link 17: Pretty sure the bot trading has been buying at 4.33

Link 18: also buying for 4.33

Link 19: Been up for 2 days and says he has bought 213 keys judging from his backpack though he has bought around 14 keys.

Link 20: Claims to have bought 4 but no keys in bp plus was only posted 6 hours ago.

Link 21: Seems to have bought 46 keys for 4.22

Link 22: Buying for 4.22 as said (1 bought)

Link 23:Buying for 4.22 (0 bought)

Link 24: Buying for 4.22 (4 bought)

Link 25: Buying for 4.22 (0 bought and 1 hour old)

Link 26: Buying for 4.22 (1 bought and also has been up for 1 hour)

Link 27: Currently buying at 4.22 but is a month old with only one person commented on the trade and only one new key.

Well there you guys go. A short description of all the links he has given in numerical order. I feel like this proof is almost solid, but not solid solid if you know what I'm saying. (Not a joke at all). O almost forgot. For the tf2 finance proof. Well, I can't disprove it other then saying that people get desperate and people will get greedy. Enjoy all the time I wasted :)

I have a tendency to discount the buying offers. Seller seem good except some. Upvote

key posts are just dumb. they dont represent the market, and litterally take 1 5000ndth of all sales

upvoted I want my BP value to rise :)))

I feel good to be the fifth person to disliked your comment. This kind of comment started by andy and it getting annoying.

The irony in your comment burns.

I'd like to say something here:

Keys (if this suggestion passes) will be at 4.28 average price in Refined metal.

Current Key price in USD: $1.48

Current cost of 4.28 Refined metal in USD: $1.49

If this keeps up, people will soon be programming their computers for bots to sell keys by the hundreds. They'll make money by doing NOTHING. In my opinion, one of three things NEEDS to happen:

1) Price of keys in Refined metal needs to drop.

2) Price of keys in USD needs to go up.

3) Price of Refined metal in USD needs to go up.

if you had a plan as to how that could be achieved please feel free enlighten us..otherwise you're just stating the obvious

Simple. Get enough people to back the idea.

not sure where u r getting those cash numbers, keys have been stable between 1.3-1.4 usd. buying keys and quickselling has been cheaper than buying ref for a while now. especially now that scrap.tf key buying is pegged to backpack

it's the automated cash-price calculating system backpack.tf is using and it's all based on the price of refined (which is why the cash-price for keys is gonna go up when this suggestion passes)..however it would be at a theoretical $1.50, even though you are right the actual price on the market has been quite stable

id point out that that is the arbitrary bp.tf pricing of keys and refined, which is much different than the actual cash market. which has and will likely remain stable between 1.3-1.4 usd. last i checked i cannot suggest a price for refined, or a cash value for keys. they r changed at a mod/admin lvl.

my point was more along the lines that u seem to be representing the price of keys/ref in usd as if it were following the bp.tf model. the "true" (empirical) price of keys has remained constant, which seems to be different from what your original post is suggesting.

insofar as the 3 suggestions i like all 3, but am skeptical that any will happen. everyone complains abt the price of keys in ref even when it was around 2.55 (when i started trading). ref has remained pretty stable in usd since i started buying on paypal, and keys have have not moved much. the issue is more the desirability of buying keys to buying ref. why buy ref when i can just buy a key? less bp space and more likely to be wanted. its rare to see key buyers in ref getting anywhere near the volume of add/comments/trades as someone selling keys for a reasonable ammt of metal. i think the keys may slightly rise in usd, but not enough to make buying ref with usd worth it.

unless they changed that quite recently (which I doubt they have) you can still suggest a price for refined..problem is that you need proof of lots of sales at the lower range, which you can't because cash-prices have always been more stable and adapt a lot slower..vicious circle..in general I'd calculate my own cash-prices, the system on this website is not very accurate as of now

the thing is...people sell for higher because other people believe they will rise

Omfg... raise the keys AGAIN?? IF YOU RAISE THE PRICE HERE THE SELLERS WILL RAISER THEIR PRICE EVEN MORE FFS.

I hate Key prices so much... People should be happy about them being 4 ref already, why on earth do they keep increasing? those prices are getting pathetic, i don't wanna buy Keys for 6 Ref in the future. stick to a price just for 1 month pls Community. That would help people like me with no doubt

So what? We gonna make a new suggestion whenever tf2finance key price rises?

4.33?

just no

Still remember how keys were just under 3 refined back in the days...

I remember back when they were 2.66.

TF2's Economy is getting worse , you traders were given the OPPORTUNITY to PRICE the things YOU WANTED , and you greedy people took "this" for granted . We might as well let The TF2 Creators make the price themselves . Go ahead , hate on my comment , this pricing is just make us increase the price of the mostly main item in this game and that is KEYS . Yes I am talking about keys , I have nothing to talk about this WHOLE TF2 Economy , just the keys . I even forgot what I am supposed to talk about . Whatever I gave you Key-Greedy people my answer to this madness of this game's Economy . I hope it stops at a certain price AS SOON AS POSSIBLE !

I do not care how many downvotes I have on my comment , I just want to let these people know that they are wrong . Well I am out of here , if this trouble still is around for the next few YEARS ( Ikr I am crazy ) I .... Nevermind , lets see what happends to TF2's Fate .... (Now this comment just is confusing isn't it?)

I completely agree that people are being greedy and inflating the prices of keys, among other things. If anything the price of the key needs to return to the old standard price of around 2.33-2.66, which was absolutely fair. All these people who continue to raise prices are only causing others to struggle in getting the items they desire, these people have no sense of thought for other people and will do anything to benefit themselves, no matter the consequences it has for other people.

Easily argued cuz people are actually still buying for these high prices!

Why would a seller sell for less??

I don't know what's worse,the greedy sellers or the stupid people that agree to these prices..

whoho, gonna spare keys, if i wait, they will be dubbled in ref price

tf2 finance = 4.20, downvote

currently 4.19 hmmmmm finally dropping

tf2finance= 4.17

1. Why would the market crash people aren't suddenly going to start selling keys at 2/3 their value, the market will only crash if Valve change something like add another currency or idling is stopped (which won't crash the market it will just decrease the speed at which keys are rising).

2. To people who flip keys the price is almost irrelevant they still provide a 1-3 scrap profit regardless of their value.

3. An investment in keys seems like a massive waste of time to me unless you own 1000's the increase over time just isn't worth the wait you could make far more profit much quicker doing other things.

4. The price people sell keys at isn't solely determined by this site, the reason people sell +1/+2 scrap value is because people buy at that price, stop buying keys above the market price if you actually want to stop them rising (keys can be bought fairly easily at their current value).

5. The graph on tf2finance fluctuates on a daily basis don't get your knickers in a twist thinking the inflation of keys is finally over if they go down by .03.

Just wanted to say this based on some of the stupid things people have said in these key suggestions. On a side note could someone who dislikes the rise in key prices explain why it is such a big deal to them.

you do realize that by raising key prices, outposters will just raise their prices for profit. its a cycle.

http://tf2finance.com/keys/ 4.16, SOMETHING IS HAPPENING PEOPLE!

http://scrap.tf/keys

4.11/4.22

http://tf2finance.com/keys/

4.16 <- !!

http://i.imgur.com/ePOcSsp.png

4.15 now. (no, it's not a friggin crash people :D) but clearly the current range is fine.

i swear you made this exact suggestion yesterday?

anyway, i can't seem to find the upvote button.

But people still selling for 4.22ref ..

Find more than 5, then you can compain.

NOOOOOO , YOU ARE JUST MAKING IT WORSE !! After 1 month , a key will be like 6 ref ..... and then 8 ref , and 10 ref until it will be 20 refs . We need to stop this inflation !

Remember back in the day when keys were 2.33.....

It was yesterday ...

So I came back today realizing finance is at 4.17, even more reason to downvote.

4.22 is enough

closing this up myself since tf2finance dropped to 4.18