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Demand for this thing is just gone.
Sellers:
Went on Outpost and found all sellers that weren't overpricing, selling as a set, selling a special leveled Pickel, or haven't been bumped in an unreasonable amount of time.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9566892 (1.5) 2 days unsold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9563254 (backpack.tf prices) 2 days unsold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8917467 (offers) Last offer was 4 days ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9040129 (offers) Same seller as last link. Last offer 4 days ago (same offer as last link too)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7855554 (offers) No offers for a month*
*The offers might've been for the other Pickel in the trade. Isn't specified.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8960282 (3 keys or offers) No offers for Pickel in 3 weeks
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9212644 (2 keys) Recently had an offer of 1 key + Gift Wrap
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9453524 (offers) Last offer was 3 days ago; offer was 4.77 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9523439 (2.5 keys or offers) No offers in 3 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9489787 (1.5 keys) Unsold for 4 days. Had an offer of 1 key two days ago.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9606170 (1.5 keys) My trade. Still new, but should watch.
---Note: All sellers below this line haven't been bumped in one or two days---
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9442340 (backpack.tf prices) Unsold for 6 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9551675 (offers) No offers for 2 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9206399 (offers) Had an offer of Vintage Ze Goggles 6 days ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8768362 (offers) No offers for 3 weeks
Buyers:
Less than one page full of buyers and nearly all of them were either quickbuyers or swapping hats. Only found one buyer at the current price, but hasn't been bumped in 4 days:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9510156
Conclusion:
Pretty difficult to sell at 1.5 keys, if at all possible. Yes, there is one guy wanting to buy it for 1.5 keys (even offered the equivilent of 2 keys), but that's only 1 guy out of so many sellers (you know? An outlier). No real buyers, just quickbuyers, but not a lot of them successful at 1 key (reminds me of my 70's Chapeau suggestion...). Nobody wants to sell for lower, but they can't seem to sell at the current price.
Questions, comments, counter-proof are all welcome.
Hmm... just sold my Pickel for 1.5 keys.
Maybe it should be ranged from 1-1.5, but I could've gotten lucky.
Any thoughts?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9563254 Sold for 6.33 ref, check item history and offers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9040129 Offer of 5 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9212644 Offer of 1 key + a gift wrap (2 keys in item/pure mix)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9453524 Offer of 4.77
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9551675 Offer of a Lumbricus Lid + 1 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9206399 Offer of V.Ze goggles (1.5 keys in items)
And I do believe your own just sold for 1.5 keys.
1-1.5 might be better
I was thinking that the moment I sold mine for 1.5 keys.