Counter suggestion, I, from looking at the proof, think that this is a more accurate price.

But let the proof speak:

My proof:

Selling:

2.33 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9121711

3.55 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9681952

3.66 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9675293

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9542089

http://i.imgur.com/6aYnFbt.png - 1 here

3.88 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9663758 - 4 ref. now

4 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9640690

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9698377

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9601360

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9680352

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9692453

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9687292

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9675327

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9547659

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9599783

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9006837

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9544207

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9640690

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9680656

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9683285

Buying:

3 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9673799 - 1 day old, no offers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9632068 - 2 days old, no offers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9640168 - 1 day old, no offers

Not too many, only 2.66 and below and these 3 ^

ivor's proof:

Successful sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9432875 - 4 sold at 1 key each (recent)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6618590 - 2 sold at 1 key each (recent)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8288038 - Someone offered a key, refused. (UNRELATED: Someone bought a sandman and flaregun for 3 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9006837 - 9 people want to buy for a key, but seller is currently sold out.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9172730 - Someone offered 1 key

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9680656 - sold for 4 ref

Willing sellers at 3.66 ref, and a bit below, so it should stay in the range.

Possible to sell at 1 key, so 4.33 ref. should hopefully cover that.

Thanks for reading, feel free to tell me what you think and vote, and have a nice one.