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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9708721
-Offer of 850 refined ~ 7.5 buds
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/600/5/44 ( http://imgur.com/Z6rHOhv )
-Selling for 8 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9634109
-Sold for Burning Milk man (duped) ~ idk even know (6.9-8.7 buds w/o overpay+duped)
Also:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9138342
-Sold for O.F Hazmat Headcase + 10 keys ~ 7.5 mixed
Who the fuck just simply has 850 ref? I assume they have many idles, but still, that's pretty insane.
Also, for the third link we need to either assume the hat's price was reduced or there was no overpay, so it'd be like 8.5 buds when overpaid or 7.8 without, which justifies your high. You may need to contact that seller to see the final deal.
I'll withhold my vote until you do that, but your other proof seems pretty concrete.