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Cancerous hat, hard to sell effect.
1 of them on the market, several links of same hat though
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9245349 ( best offer is 2 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9243232 offer of plasma lid (1.5 buds about with overpay), and an offer of an eerie shako (2 buds with overpay)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8864606 best offer is 2 buds and 6 keys
2-2.5 buds seems to be about right. I didn't want to too severely undervalue it, but it's not getting many offers higher than 2.3; but if the owner rejects them, the price should be a little bit higher.
I get what you are saying, but 2.5 seems high. The highest offer you've shown is 2.25. So why are you adding that .25 to it? Solely because seller reject those offers?
Some hats have been underpriced in the past, this is a starting value, so it should be relatively wide to make a forgiving range.
That may be true, but I don't agree with the logic. If the hat is underpriced then change it, but don't artificially inflate the price.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8594561 probably sold for --> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8768105 Smoking Team Captain(~5.8) for~Stormy 13th Hour German Gonzila + Circling Peace Sign Blighted Beak(~2.5) . Stormy 13th Hour German Gonzila~3.3 buds in unusual~3 pure. Buyer: -Him (1 month ago) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8189780 . NO NO NO
The Blighted Beak is more like 3.3 honestly, it's just undervalued on this website. Also, if you can get solid proof it was sold for that, then that will back your statement up. As for it selling to 'Him' for 3 pure, that seems to be more of an outlier price, rather than the actual price of this hat. He's had it up for over 1 month and has had no offers above even 2.3 buds; while it's unlikely it's dropped that severely, with no reliable price on it, it's still very unstable, so if in about 1 and a half months he's gotten no offers higher than 2.3, I think 2-2.5 is a very fair range. Also, smoking TC's are the new cancer of OP, they're extremely hard to sell, with so many on the market; also, you forgot to factor in overpay for unusuals, making the TC only about 5.22, which means that the Beak + Gonzilla falls perfectly into the range it's at now.