First unusual suggestion after a long time. Hope this is right!

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8342743

B/O 4.5 buds, but would take ~3.9 buds (in the comments)

- 2 buds + 45 keys =3.7

- 3 buds + Gold EA ~3.2

- Blizzardy HWAH (1-1.3) + Smoking Fukaamigasa (1.2-1.5) + 1 bud ~3.2

- 3 buds

- Smoking Beak (2.9-3.4) ~2.9

- Stormy El Jefe (2.9-3.4) ~2.9

- H. Ghosts Spartan (2.9-3.3) ~2.9

- H. Ghosts Jeepcap (2.6-3.3) ~2.6

- Gifted Blizzardy Fancy Fedora (0.8-1.1) + Circ. TF Logo Party Phantom (1.8-2.3) + 1.25 keys sweets ~2.6

- Max Head (low) =2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8118688

Looks like he got it with 1:1 Blizzardy Gentleman's Ushanka (3.5-4.5) ~3.5

Backpack at 24/1

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198045417016?time=1359014400

Backpack at 30/1

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198045417016?time=1359532800