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Hi, original price changer here. :)
It took forever to sell this at lower than the max price so I thought it'd be best to lower the max on this a bit to match the current market price.
Proof:
1)
Link: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8760168
Description: My own trade. Put it up for a month and the best offers I got were unusuals at around the 1.5 bud range. Ended up selling it recently with keys and sweets on my won part worth 24 keys for a 2.3ish bud hat.
The unusual offers were around the 1.5 bud mark and, as you all know, unusual offers usually are expected to overpay.
Importance: Just shows that 1.8 buds is very much out of reach. If the best offers I got were 1.5 buds over the span of a month...
2)
Link: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9535135
Description: 1.7 bud buyout. 1 week old and no takers.
Importance: Very strong proof that 1.7 buds isn't even reachable so far. It's painted black and, yet, no takers. Shows that the Smoking Fedora is no longer 1.8 buds max.
3)
Link: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8843819
Description: 1.7 bud buyout for a month and no takers. Below the max and no buyers. I didn't go through every comment, but what I saw were offers similar to what I got [Link 1].
Importance: Same as the first link. 1.8 buds is not reachable and 1.7 isn't having buyers.
4)
Link: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9654978
Description: Not as solid as the other two. Buyout of 2.5 buds and not met (3 days old only though). Offers are similar to the first two, falling around 1.5 buds.
Importance: Not as solid as the other two, but still shows the community's willingness to not pay 1.8+ buds.
5)
Link: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9709124
Description: 1 day old trade. Not really that great of proof but thought you'd guys would like to see it (I'm not cutting corners with my price checks :P). 2 bud buyout, only offer so far being slightly over a bud.
Importance: Not that important, just something for you guys to keep your eyes on.
Conclusion:
I believe that 1.4 should be dropped a bit to 1.3 buds. Why? Because many of the offers I've seen on this hat (the proof I could find today are listed above) are unusuals in the 1.5 bud range. Take your "unusual overpay fee" and you get roughly a 1.3 bud offer.
As for the high end... well, it's not 1.8 buds. No arguments. I've tried to sell for 1.8-2 buds for a month without any takers and the community seems willing to only offer 1.5ish for it. Buyouts of 1.8 and, even, 1.7 are not taken. In my opinion, as someone who's had this hat for a few months and has recently tried to sell it, the high end should be 1.6 buds.
Solid proof. Upvoted.
Nice hat but the effect is too simply. The proofs are solid for an item who exists only in 30 copies. Upvoted.