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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9694740 (sold for 1.33)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9425279 (offered 1 ref)
No more trades open on Outpost selling a uncraft hard top: http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/93520645
Conclusion: Low supply means players will offer higher then 0.66 for this somewhat rare hat.
Upvoted. Reiterating what I said in your other suggestion - with what little proof there is out there, this seems reasonable.