Suggestion: Stormy Storm Janissary Ketche at 15.43–17.15 keys

Price Suggestion

~12 keys

stormy

152 votes up

23 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Thu, 04 Apr 13 05:43:05 +0000 by SirJjjon.

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Comments

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9657764 no offers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9765199 no offers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9771669 no offers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9565551 week old, no offers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7432954 Offer of Steaming Noir (19 keys with overpay), Bliz Mullet if sweets are added (so likely somwhere around 20 keys, though sweets aren't discussed), Smoking L'Inspectuer (17 keys with overpay)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6935876 Offer of Steaming Noir (19 keys with overpay), 18 keys, Orb fire L'inspectuer + 3 keys in sweets (about 19 keys with overpay), Orb. Fire Sola Topi (18 keys with overpay)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8600924 Best offer is 20 keys

None of the B/O's support your range and all the offers are un taken. You need a lot more proof.

You also need previous transactions, such as this one.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9026259

Sold for:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9654359

-Stormy Storm Buckaroo's Hat ~ 25.5 keys (w/o overpay)

Clearly more than 18 keys, and also, if there was a 20 key offer (not accepted), why would 18 be the low end? I think I'm going to downvote on this one, unless more proof suggests your range.

Also, BO's mean nothing.

With overpay though, that's about 22 keys, and that's just a high outlier.

Outlier? 2 keys away? Eh nope. 1 bud would be a outlier but 22 keys isn't one. Also some unusuals hardly get (good) offers, that's the case for many halloween ones for example, so you should go by the last sales of them or stuff like that.

If they hardly get good offers, then that means the unusuals aren't wanted and the sellers are stubborn. If buyers don't REALLY want it, then the price must go down, as demand drops.

To got back to the halloween hats: Only 1 offer per month doesn't mean it isn't worth nothing. Some unusuals are very hard to sell and take time but you shouldn't always value them at their most recent offer because that could be a lowball one. Be careful about pricing those sort of unusuals.

Only there's a giant difference between Halloween hats and this hat: the Halloween effects are incredibly rare, with max number of any given hat plus effect being around 7, but usually around 2 to 4. Then, let's look at the number of Stormy Ketches: 42. The market is FLOODED with these hats. As supply goes up, demand goes down. Just to even get any offers is hard, as there are so many competitors. This means that the price must go down, and even if a SINGLE TRADE shows a higher end of 22, the majority of offers in the time period of 3 months between several trades shows that 18 keys to 20 keys is the absolute max, with (if you're lucky) a 22 key offer.

Maybe the previous price was set when there were already many on the market? Does the price goes down forever then? Whatever, too tricky for me, I'm neutral.

Good proof!

+upboat

Looks good

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9653811 sold for --> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9765199 Stormy Storm Buckaroos Hat ~21-28 NO

Let's do some basic math here; the Buck is worth 24.5 keys as the mid price range. All unusuals are counted as .9, for overpay of reselling. That means that it's 22 keys in value. Considering that there are about 11 trades on outpost (didn't list all of them). Also, the Buckaroos is quite over valued. In addition, if there's only a SINGLE trade listing for a price outside of the majority of offers, it's an outlier.

I gotta agree with eraser there. Lowballs don't always account for the price...

3 MONTHS of lowballs, though? Normally I would agree...BUT THREE WHOLE MONTHS ON TWO SEPARATE TRADES, NONE WITH ANY OFFERS ABOVE 20 KEYS!? :S It's an abysmal hat, and so many of them. While I do agree that it IS possible to get higher if you get lucky, I still think this is way over-valued and needs a bump down.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9143036 also sold for 26.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9129746 17 keys + #17 fruit shoot offer

the sf knife, the buckaroos, these two, your suggested range is a bit low