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OK I don't know how the 1.33-1.66 ref suggestion ([url]http://backpack.tf/vote/id/515ab418ba2536893200000d[/url]) got passed over mine ([url]http://backpack.tf/vote/id/515a4b7d4bd7b86724000024[/url]), but here is some counterproof to his 1.33 ref low end:
***THIS IS A DIRECT QUOTE FROM HIS SUGGESTION***
1.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9212368 Has several in his backpack
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6433298 Bought at least 4 last 2 weeks at 1.33 (see new items in inventory)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9754500 Has in 1 BP, not sure if bought at 1.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9621462 Someone added
***END OF QUOTE***
1st link ([url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9212368[/url]) is not valid proof just because he "Has several in his backpack." Last posted add was 2 weeks ago
2nd link ([url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6433298[/url]) - again not strong proof and one could argue that they were quickselling it to him
3rd link ([url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9754500[/url]) - "Has 1 in BP, not sure if bought it at 1.33 ref"; we're not sure either so you shouldn't assume anything. Thus the proof should be invalid.
4th link ([url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9621462[/url]) - only 1 person added him over 5 days (and it was 5 days ago)
****************************************************************************************************
Now to reiterate my suggestion:
BUYERS:
Not bought for 1.33 ref:
2 months, no adds http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8087861
No recent adds http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9212368
No recent adds http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6433298
5 days, only 1 add http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9621462
1 day http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9741890
1 day http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9754500
5 hrs http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9776105
Buying for 1.66 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9733144 Closed after a day
SELLERS:
Buyer offers:
Rejected 2 ref http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9288724
Rejected 2 for 3.44 ref (1.66 + wep each): http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9640444
1.66 ref, willing to go 2 ref http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6209311
1.66 ref http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9647776
1.66 ref http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7495398
Sold for 1.66 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9603420
Sold for 2 ref:
2 adds http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9605488
The previous suggestion showed some sales at 1.33, and some at 1.66, hence the range.
A lot of times, sellers don't post and just add the trader directly, so you have to check their bp to find out how successful they are at buying.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9476925 - has 4 still unplaced in bp, 54 in total - you dismiss this as quicksell, so 54 individual quicksells? That seems like a lot
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9733144 - your buyer for 1.66 is actually buying for 1.33, don't know why he made that trade
You have shown one sold at 1.66, one sold at 2, one rejected at 2, and a couple of 1.66 offers. Sure, 1.66 is doable. 1.33 is still possible too, even among the seller end.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9766929 - selling for 1?? three interested buyers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5052596 - selling for 1.33, two left
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7019691 - selling for 1 (this trader hasn't been online for 19 days...)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9766747 - accepted 1.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9672770 - accepted 1.33
This item is on the rise, but the successful buyers with many in their backpack (meaning people sold to them, even if the sellers didn't write "added" on the trade) and a few sellers show this item is still possible to get for 1.33 ref
Ok, but i'd just like to point out that your 2nd and 3rd links (out of the 5 bottom ones) are invalid proof since they dont respond to any friend requests. (I tried adding them last week to no avail)
Their trades should be closed since they don't have intent to sell...
Oh well
Also, I did check the BP's of most of them and they didn't have any. The ones you presented were an exception.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9212368
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6433298
These two are actual buyers.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9754500 - has buying capability, but his trade is only 1 day old. He has one in bp
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9621462 - he's probably only looking for one (also poorly bumped)
In addition, the buyers who have managed to buy for 1.33 ref are what most people consider "quickbuyers" but I admit I failed to categorize them separately.
Still, if 54 people are willing to "quicksell", then it's not all that uncommon. If you look on outpost, real quickbuyers are paying 1 ref or less. And they're mostly unsuccessful
54 parts (not people) over who knows how long he has been collecting them.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/162596 - look at the item IDs, they're in the 15xxx or 14xxx range, meaning it's fairly recent.
What is fairly recent? 1 month?
Since the last price update, by you, about 2 weeks ago. At that time, the item IDs were aroudn 1518xxxx series. I just counted his bp, and he has 15 with an ID past that. One week ago, the item IDs were 1531xxxx. He has 6 that fall into that category. 6 days ago the item IDs were 1547xxxx. He has 4 that fall within 6 days. That's recent.
Well I got my strange bottle on Jan 28 and it has a 14xxx ID
I give you props for researching those IDs. (I can't comment on your other post)
Again, I must comment that I disagree with your first statement. This suggestion is also a counter-proof to the lower range. I presented his "proof" of 1.33 sales and I said why they were wrong, if you actually read that part of my suggestion.
And I have just shown you that 1.33 is still somewhat possible, if you actually read what I have wrote
Well you provided 2 sellers willing to sell for 1.33 ref, and I provided 5 buyers willing to go over 1.66 ref.
And you're ignoring the successful buyers at 1.33...
I now have a feeling that this suggestion should be 1.33-2 ref lol. Not realistic though i hope you know i'm kidding.
Check my additional proof.
excellent proof once again! upvoted
Here is some more proof for the skeptics:
Not bought 1.33 ref http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9793693
Added for 1.66 ref http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9791675
Buying for 1.66 ref
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9804240[/url]just boughthttp://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9630592
Buying for 2 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9803257
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9734017