Suggestion: Strange Festive Scattergun at 65–67.6 keys

Price Suggestion

~102.5 keys

62 votes up

92 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Fri, 05 Apr 13 05:22:47 +0000 by A Distinctive Lack of Vincent.

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Comments

Month outdated price, virtually all buyouts on Outpost are now about 68+ keys (2.65 buds) I do mean virtually all, the list below are pretty much all strange festive scatter guns that are not being sold as a set, and are selling for buds/keys, or taking offers.

The suggested price is listed as 66.3, please keep in mind that these are nearly all the posts from Outpost that are selling scatter guns for buds/keys. ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/94187866 )

Economical notes:

-Limited, high demand promo from a year ago.

-Around 1,400 exist

-Nearly highest sought-after Strange Festive from 2011 ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/94195198 (10 pages of it wishlisted, while only 4 pages are for sale)

Buyouts of:

66 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9729051 (66 keys)

67 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9604729 (67 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9778079 (67 keys)

68 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9717998 (68 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9623469 (68 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9449888 (68 keys)

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/669/11/0 (68 keys)

Above 68 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9677918 (69 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9778126 (69 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9781351 (70 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9791170 (70 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9790675 (70 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9680079 (72 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9569598 (74 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8345231 (3 buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9320594 (3 buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9358703 (3 buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9723732 (3 buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8380129 (3 buds+)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8221819 (4 buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9595532 (4 buds)

Offers of: (all are fairly recent unless noted otherwise)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9779587 (offer of ~66 keys- 1 Bud + Bubbling Cosa Nostra Cap + Genuine Ap-Sap)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4082276 (offer of 67 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8436236 (offer of 68 keys- - 1 Max + 1 Bill's + 5 Keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8345231 (offer of 70 keys (Vanilla.''s post)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7045606 (*old* offer of 2 buds 20 keys (Th3 Jez's post)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8911775 (offer of a hearts snaggle 2.7-3.5 buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9449888 (past offer of $105 USD)

Taken into account the evidence, I believe beyond a reasonable doubt that the range of 2.5-2.6 reflects the current market value demand of the item.

Buyouts tend to mean very little in terms trying to raise the price, since I'm assuming that most of them are unsold. The offers are the important part, and from that it seems slightly more realistic. Gist: Selling ≠ Sold.

Yes, that is a reasonable thing to say. However, when taken into account high-value promo items, the lack offers shouldn't weigh down the fact that nobody is selling theirs for the current range. No trader wishes to "quicksell" their scattergun within the current price range, because they know demand is high.

But much like the buyer, there is the seller. Some counter proof:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9384967 - an offer asking 2 buds http://puu.sh/2tBge

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8139093 - another offer of 2 http://puu.sh/2tBhj

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9492817 - an offer of 2 buds 5 keys http://puu.sh/2tBk4

These are all with in a reasonable time of one week. So I'm going to have to downvote, since this shows people are willing to sell for under the current range.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8248685 - looks like you bought your scatter for a max. Which is under the current range, granted that was 2 months ago.

Reasoning: People are willing to buy for over the current range, and people are willing to sell for under the current range, so the current range seems to be a nice average of the trades.

Two months ago the price was 2-2.5, time since then, the price has risen

Well aware of that, and I even made not of that. But there are still people, now, selling theirs for two buds, you claimed "No trader wishes to "quicksell" their scattergun." I easily proved that wrong.

If all you have to say is a rebutted to the obvious, in terms of your own trade, clearly there is not much else for you to say that would help your case.

I believe the buyouts dont mean much when trying to rise the price and cmon... we do see one of them in your backpack. There are offers though but still :/

But unlike other people who use it to their advantage, I have no intentions of selling mine.

Even people with nfs items still sometimes wish to raise the prices of their items because A) nfs doesnt usually mean nfs forever and B) bragging rights.

That can be true, however, that is not my intention here. I'm raising the price to accurately reflect the current supply/demand curvature of the market for this item right now.

It's the same way with buds and keys, people wish to hold onto them so they can rise in value, even though this is a shady tactic, it's a valid one because people are willing to pay that much for it, as my evidence would suggest.

The way I see it the price is going to reach this point sometime in the future but I think you may have jumped the gun just a bit with this suggestion, maybe wait until some of those buyouts are being payed. Major discredit to the evidence you supplied is that it is generally an accepted fact that everybody on outpost overprices their items and underprices others

"everybody on outpost overprices their items and underprices others"

That is true, that is very, very true. However, when you see 20+ trades on a very limited promo item do it, it begs the question to thing that it's "overpriced", but rather a growing trend of demand for it, which the slight rise of value suggestion would assert.

True it does beg the question, but I don't think the answer is a clear 1 way or the other, and what it really boils down to in my mind is that the people who have to OK these prices tend to be rather conservative so as to prevent a huge upsetting of the market.

Lol'd at "Month outdated price"