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Before you downvote it because i currently own this hat, please read.
This hat needs a price bump. There are currently 3 in the market.
I paid 4 pure + vivid plasma Glengarry bonnet for mine.
Other trades:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9811487
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9765374 <-- Didn't take my offer of 4 + bonnet
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9854984 <-- Mine
Best offers they got:
Cloudy moon Lord cockwains (4.5-4.9)
Burning glengarry bonnet (5-5.5)
Scorching Stout shako (4.4-5)
Smoking Tough Muffs (5.1-5.6)
(My offer) 4 buds + Vivid glengarry bonnet (5.4 - 5.9)
All the offers are around that 5 buds and more price, so i think this bump is fair.
You did not calculate overpay.
Overpaid on the old price:
Burning glengarry, Overpaid with 1 bud
Smoking Muffs, overpaid with 1 bud,
4 buds + vivid bonnet, overpaid with ~1.5 buds.
Cockwains and stout aren't really overpays, but still decent offers.
I mean all unusual offers' medians need to be multipled by 90%
Sold for 4.5: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9585960 - 1 week ago
Disproves your range
That is right, maybe i am bumping it a bit to high.
4.5-5 would have been better.
But maybe he just sold it for way too less, because he only saw the current price of it on backpack.tf. Thats why it needs a bump.
This website is not based on what a price SHOULD be. It is based on what it is actually buying and selling at. We can only speculate on why he sold it for that price. But the fact is that he sold it at that price, so that should be part of the range.
It is also the highest visible pure offer. The price ranges you see on bp.tf are prices in PURE. So for all those unusual offers you have, you need to take some deductions as Ezeon suggested above to get a more accurate price in pure.
I think 4.5-5 will be true.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7940511 - sold for scorching pot (5.3-5.6), about 5 pure
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9393412 - added 50 keys (1.9 buds) to this hat for a burning rack (5.7-6.2)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9585960 - sold for 4.5 buds
Suggested price is a little high. We have a sale at about 4 buds, but the trader really wanted a burning rack. Two other sales are at 4.5 and 5, and like the comments have said, that would make a better range.