Suggestion: Upgrade to Premium Gift at 2.25–2.75 keys

Price Suggestion

~2.33 keys

240 votes up

40 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Sun, 07 Apr 13 00:54:03 +0000 by Puddilicious.

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Comments

Why yes, I have one of these in my BP, thank you for noticing.

Unsold for 3 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9737087 - 5 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9308188 - 3 weeks

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9786707 - 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9786013 - 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9743429 - 4 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9492073 - 2 weeks

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9787146 - 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9520754 - 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9671390 - 1 week. I checked his BP, still has it.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9772187 - 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9687408 - 6 days (No, that faded Gift is unsold, not sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9241344 - Last add was 2 weeks ago. None since.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9676998 - 1 week (No, that faded Gift is also unsold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7512687 - Last add was at least 1 week ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9480501 - Last add was at least 1 week ago from the looks of it

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9753520 - 4 days

I could keep going, but then I'd be going into the realm of unbumped trades (already semi-there)

Classifieds

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/5082/6/0/1 - About a page full of 'em unsold at 3 keys.

Willing sellers below 3 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9835644 - Was willing to sell at 2.5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9802904 - Selling for 2 keys and 2.66 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9093833 - Willing to sell for 2.5 keys (side note: Unsold for 3 keys for 4 weeks)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9788855 - Selling for 2 keys 3 ref. Has at least one add

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9843510 - My trade. Selling for 2 keys and 3 ref. Still fairly new, however.

Buyers

Making a note here: ~~Huge success~~ Lots of quickbuyers trying to get at 2 keys with little success.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8861493 - Offer of 2.5 keys (red peck's comment near the bottom)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9817994 - Buying at 2 keys 1 ref. Has 3 in BP

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9789930 - 1:1-ing with a Robro or giving 2 keys 3 ref for Premium Gift

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9753768 - Michael Puddington's trade. Buying for 10 ref (just under 2.5 keys). Has a few in his BP, but can't be sure if he got for this price. Also noticed he had another trade buying for 2 keys 2 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7860485 - 10 ref. Has one add 2 days ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9337532 - Couple of adds for 2 keys 1 rec

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9599730 - Mr. Bucket's trade. Buying for 10 ref. Has at least one add 4 days ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9487187 - Buying at 2 keys 2 ref. Has one guy willing to sell 2 for 5 keys total.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9766267 - 2 keys 1 ref. Has one add very recently. Said he had two adds http://i.imgur.com/FU5ePkK.png

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9766120 - 2 keys 2 ref. 3 days with no adds and none in his BP (logic is missing, but when was it ever here?)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9810822 - My trade. Managed to get one after a day of bumping at 2 keys 1 ref

Conclusion

If you're lucky, and I mean really lucky (planets-have-aligned lucky), you could get 3 keys out of this, but it doesn't happen very frequently. 2.75 keys is do-able if you wait just a bit. Getting one of these for 2.25 keys is also do-able if you wait, but 2 keys is not even close.

Questions, comments, counter-proof are all welcome.

This is pretty firm evidence, I agree with you

I sure hope so. I went looking through nearly all buyers and sellers of this thing on Outpost.

I bought like 1 of these at 2 keys 1 ref on my trade that are up for a week. I then sell it for 2 keys 3 ref with no prob.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9439599 sold many at 2.75 without a problem

http://puu.sh/2uJmL sold mine for that easily.

The seller has sold 3 within the past week. Decent, but not a ton.

Are you trying to disprove this suggestion or trying to strengthen it? I honestly can't tell.

cannot say how many add by comments because I sold many stuff without any "add"

Valid point, but checking the BPs and item history of some of the unsold gifts reassure that they are unsold.

worth noting in your unsucessful buyers link, the one that has one faded out, actually was sold, I don't know if it was for three keys, but there is definitely only one in his bp.

If you mean Unsuccessful sellers, I checked again and noticed one seller did only have one Gift in his BP, but he had 2 keys, 1 ref, and 2 weapons all new in his BP from the same person. Checked that guy's BP and didn't see anything new from the seller. My assumption is the two traded and the seller was willing to go down to the equivalent of 2 keys 1.11 ref for the Gift, but can't be sure. Item history stops at the seller, by the way.

If you're referring to the other seller, you'd be wrong because he only has two in his BP.

Way too many buyers at 2.5 keys for 2.25 keys to be part of the range. I have trouble getting these at 2.5 keys.

So you're saying 2.5-2.75 would be a better range?

Better. Yes.

Actually, 2.5 flat is where most of these get traded, so I think your range is good.

owns 1. why does he want to make his bp worth less?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMesx-CWbGk

I don't care about my BP value. It's only a quarter-of-a-key drop anyway.

#1: i was kidding. #2: watch the video

Sorry, you're right.

I aim to lower the value of all the items in my backpack.

its a conspiracy man...

Btw it's 2 adds

http://i.imgur.com/FU5ePkK.png

Okay, thanks. I could only see the one add.

While I have these in my backpack and yes, I am a supplier of these I also selling for the lowest on Outpost, so I wouldn't say the following comment is too biased.

I would not say the low end should be 2.25, since I don't feel that the low end of the range should be dictated at what people are buying for. None of the buyers at around 2 keys 1 ref has been buying consistently. One to three adds in 2-4 days (in the case of http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9817994 and http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9766267) shouldn't compare to the fact that I sell at least 5-10 a day at a bit over 2.5. I feel that this would be akin to lowering Bill's or Buds by half a key to a key respectively - Buyers will always offer lower than market value, and some will indeed get some trades. TL;DR: Just because you can buy a few at that price, doesn't mean that the majority sell for it.

Here's some proof showing 4 sold at a bit over 2.5 in less than half an hour:

http://i.imgur.com/r1wNg5O.png

The problem with that argument is that buyers at 2 keys 1 ref are very successful in a short period of time. If you compare that to quickbuyers of Bill's or Buds, they only get about 1 or 2 adds within a period of 1 month at half a key lower than current market value (maybe not so much Buds, but Bill's definitely), which is not sufficient enough to lower the price. I counted the for-sure successful buys at 2.25 keys just from the proof I gave - there's 5 sales at 2 keys 1 ref with another 2 at 2 keys 1 rec. Quite a few sales for quickbuyers.

I can explain why you've been so successful at your price - in the current price, it's very close to the low end and most sellers you'll find are trying for 3 keys. People go looking for sellers and find too many 3 key sellers then see your trade and find it to be a good deal... because it is.

" buyers at 2 keys 1 ref are very successful in a short period of time."

not very successful for me to buy at 2.25

and I buy bills at 7.5 keys(7 keys 2 ref) and I get like 4 adds in two weeks so...

quickbuyers should not be count if they just gonna turn around and flip it for more easily.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9572886 I posted a trade and I didn't get one in like 1-2 days so I paid 2 keys 3 ref on http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9439599

I was pretty successful at 2.25, as were a few other people. Maybe you were just unlucky.

My example of Bill's/Buds was probably not fantastic since they are promos and the amount in the world is limited.

However, 2.25 clearly seems to be the minority here. Prices should not be adjusted on the minority, but rather the majority of sales. Here's a very rough breakdown of the sales for premium in one day:

3 sold at 2.75 - 5 sold at 2.5 - 1 sold at 2.25 (These figures are obviously not exact, but I would say that it generally represents the proof that you have provided).

If the low end of the range was to be lowered, there would have to be just as many successful buys at the lowest price (2.25) than sales of the highest price (2.75). There are clearly many more people that are successfully selling at 2 keys and 3 refined (~2.75), and much faster sales at that than there are buyers at 2 keys and 1 refined (~2.25).

Another example would be: It takes you 24 hours of bumping to buy at 2.25. According to your trade where you sold at 2.75, you had a comment of interest within about 12 hours. Shouldn't that mean that it's nearly twice as easy to sell at 2.75 than it is to buy at 2.25? If it were plausible to easily buy at 2.25, then you should be able to buy them as fast as you can sell them.

I would totally agree with you if there were multiple buyers who were successful at buying at least one a day at 2.25, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

There are only 3 buyers that you could show that have successfully purchased around 6 in total in a span of almost a week. That's roughly one purchased at 2.25 per day, while there are probably dozens sold at 2.5-2.75 daily.

Again, the price should not be defined by the minority of transactions, but the majority of them. The majority of transactions seems to be around 2.5-2.75

Edit:

You also said "buyers at 2 keys 1 ref are very successful in a short period of time." - I want to stress the "short period of time" part. If prices were adjusted by the short period of successes (which could be attributed to luck or when you're online) then prices for many items would have to be changed several times per day based on success rates.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9766267 - 2 adds at 2.25 (shown by the screenshot he provided)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9599730 - 1 add

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7860485 - 1 add

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9817994 - Bought 3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9810822 - Bought 1 (can provide screenshot if you want)

That's 8 sales at 2.25 keys.

Ooo, someone went and disliked all of my comments.

How mature.

here ill like em for ya :)

Oh, why thank you.

liked :D.....i need 10 characters to post that i liked that comment...

2.5-2.75 sounds just about right. but 2.25 still looks like a quicksell price. 3 ref is obviously a quickbuy price so i don't know why it is even in the range.

Agreed. Selling at 3 keys is pretty much impossible, but for 2.5 is pretty easy to get buyers. And Backpack expanders are usually 1:1 with Premium upgrades, the former being at 2.75 (may need to be set to a 2.5-2.75 range, maybe).