2 month old price and was weirdly low, I thought, so here we go:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9529515

b/o is 1.66

offers of 16, 17 pure, rejected

smoking conquistador(20-22ish) (he doesn't have it anymore, so retracted?)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9609646

bubbling beret + small sweets, rejected (21ish)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8604627

older trade, but more recent than last suggestion

23 rejected seller is looking only for hats.

bubbling hot dogger, rejected (18)

steaming toque(21), rejected (seller only wants pyro/scout hats)

20 keys

smoking dixie(16)

p. fetti trilby(19)

21 keys

orb planets little buddy if the seller adds 6 keys (16 ish)

(note seller has stopped responding to offers)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8806765

same guy as link 3

smoking hetmans + sweets (14+)

bubbles safe n sound + 2 keys (20) (retracted, hat sold)

blizz merry for the gonzilla+ bills + widow + 7 keys (1.7ish - 18 keys = just under a bud, calling it around 25 keys, outlier a bit, but htis offer was a week ago, however this guy has bought one (guy from link 1 and 2)

bubbles buckaroo's (15)

orb planets birdcage for gonzila + bills (11 ish, there are many offers like this, I omitted most because they put the unusual at 9-10 keys which is not reasonable)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8879619

b/o 1.33, 1 month old trade

smoking hetmans + sweets, rejected (14+)

steaming dread knot + 3keys (16)

21 pure (looks like he bought one, he his the seller from link 1 and 2)

planets rag(16) rejected

p. fetti trilby(19), rejected

a lot of duplicate offers form link 4

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9378634

sold

guy from link one offered 21 keys looks like it sold for that.

16, 17, 18 all rejected here

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8451267

18 c/o'd

steaming white gatsby 20 ish, asked to add sweets, looks like it sold for this

Okay lots of rejection of 17-19 but not a lot of offers higher than that. Looks like the median offer is around 18 with an outlying high end of 25, being a reasonable person however, I think 22 would be better as that's where most considered offers end up around, including the sale for 21 pure. I'm open to suggestions for the range but certainly no one is selling this for 16 anymore, and I think this range more accurately reflects the what this hat can be sold for. In the interest of full disclosure I have a g. fetti gonzila for sale currently, but I don't think this has much bearing on my price determination.